IMPORT AND EXPORT

By – Nandani Dhandharia

1. The article examines the relationship between India’s exports and imports to see if they are cointegrated, which would suggest the country’s trade imbalance is sustainable. Previous studies found that countries with cointegrated exports and imports have effective macroeconomic policies. The study uses data from 1949-2005, analyzing both Indian rupee and US dollar values. While previous studies found evidence of cointegration for India, this research suggests no cointegration after accounting for a shift to a floating exchange rate in 1993. The findings imply India’s trade deficit may not be sustainable in the long term, violating its international budget constraints. The paper emphasizes the importance of the exchange rate regime in such analyses.

2. In 2015, Russia’s foreign trade showed simultaneous changes in both exports and imports. Exports were more stable, dropping less than imports, which were influenced by the weakened Russian rouble. Imports decreased to $150.4 billion, while exports amounted to $288.7 billion. Certain items like “Chemical products” and “Food products” saw smaller declines in import volumes, while “Means of transport” and “Metals” experienced bigger drops. Export declines were highest in “Mineral products” and “Textiles.” Despite global price fluctuations, there was minimal structural change in the import and export sectors, and Russia continued to demand similar types of goods as before. However, the trade shift was toward lower-quality, less expensive products.

3. In 2015, Russia’s exports and imports showed significant changes, with the foreign trade balance remaining positive. Exports fluctuated throughout the year, with a peak in February at 81.6% of 2014 levels, but dropping to 57.8% by July before recovering to 69.3% in September. Imports varied between 57.7% and 66.5% of 2014 figures, with chemical products and machinery showing the smallest decline in export value. The ruble’s decline impacted imports, especially in fuel and garments. Agricultural products, like meat and flour, saw increased exports, while industrial goods, like transport vehicles and household appliances, had mixed results with exports generally faring better than imports. The overall trend showed a reduction in both production and consumption across most sectors.

4. The article analyzes the impact of ruble devaluation on Russia’s foreign trade during crises. It highlights three cases where devaluation affected export and import dynamics. In one case, the theory held true—exports increased and imports decreased—but in other instances, both exports and imports responded differently than expected. While devaluation usually increases export revenue and discourages imports, other factors like global prices and internal policies also influence trade patterns. The study shows that ruble devaluation acts as a tool for increasing exports and reducing imports, though its effect diminishes over time. It concludes that exchange rate fluctuations significantly influence trade, but not always in line with theoretical predictions.

5. This research presents a theoretical model and empirical evidence to explain the factors influencing Spanish maritime imports and exports, specifically for general cargo. Previous studies on maritime transport demand did not differentiate between imports and exports, nor did they consider transport costs. The study uses quarterly data from 1975 to 1993 and incorporates maritime transport costs into the analysis, unlike past studies that ignored these costs. The authors apply Johansen’s cointegration technique to estimate long-term relationships between import and export variables. They analyze variables such as GDP, import prices, and maritime transport service prices. The results help to understand the key drivers behind Spain’s maritime trade.

6. This article discusses the effects of import dependency on Turkey’s exports. Globalization has led to increased foreign trade, with developing countries, like Turkey, adopting open economies. While this has improved Turkey’s export potential, it has also made the country more reliant on imported goods, particularly intermediate and capital goods. The article highlights how exchange rates and economic instability further increase dependency on imports. Using econometric methods, the study found that imports of intermediate goods, capital goods, energy, and exchange rates significantly affect Turkey’s exports. Despite policies to reduce import dependency, foreign trade deficits persist. The article recommends reducing reliance on imports by encouraging domestic production of intermediate goods and focusing on technology-intensive industries to improve export competitiveness.

7. International trade involves the exchange of goods and services between countries, driven by differences in resources like natural, human, and financial capital. The concept of comparative advantage suggests that nations trade to leverage their strengths in various resources. Romania has had a trade deficit since 2005, importing more than it exports, with a significant rise in trade deficit by 2008. The main products exported by Romania include machinery, transport equipment, and agricultural products like wheat and cereals. Germany is Romania’s largest trade partner, both for exports and imports. Romania also faces a trade deficit with Germany and Italy but has a surplus with France. Since 2005, Romania’s export structure has heavily relied on the automotive industry and machinery.

8. This study used data from 1,988 export firms in Thailand, with a random sample of 400 firms. Questionnaires were sent to key managers, with a 26.25% response rate. The research focused on export incentives and their effects on the performance of exporters, using both monetary and non-monetary incentives. Statistical methods like Cronbach’s Alpha and factor analysis confirmed the reliability and validity of the data. Results showed that export incentives positively influenced both importers’ role performance and exporters’ performance. Importers’ role performance fully mediated the effect of export incentives on exporter performance. The study emphasizes the importance of export incentives in fostering strong importer relationships and improving export performance.

9. Russia’s foreign trade in services reached $140 billion in 2015, making up 21% of its total foreign trade. The share of services in imports grew to 32.7%. The ruble’s depreciation and economic recession negatively affected imports of both goods and services. There was a notable decline in imports of building services, while telecom and IT services remained stable. Russia’s foreign trade with Eurasian Economic Union and APEC countries increased, but trade with the EU and Ukraine decreased significantly. Exports and imports of services fell in 2015, with the most substantial drops in building and transport services. The geographic pattern of trade shifted, with Kazakhstan’s share rising and Ukraine’s share falling sharply.

10. The article analyzes the impact of agricultural and non-agricultural exports on Tunisia’s economic growth using annual data from 1990 to 2020. The study employs an ARDL model to estimate both short- and long-term effects. Key variables include GDP, capital, labor, agricultural exports, other exports, and imports, all sourced from the World Bank. Results show that agricultural exports negatively affect economic growth, as does other exports, while imports have a positive impact. Additionally, capital and labor have negative effects on growth, suggesting the need for economic diversification. The ARDL model tests confirm the existence of a long-term relationship, with robust results supported by various diagnostic tests.

11. The article examines whether India’s exports and imports are cointegrated, which could suggest a sustainable trade imbalance.

Previous studies found evidence of cointegration, but this research suggests no cointegration after India switched to a floating exchange rate in 1993.

The findings imply that India’s trade deficit may not be sustainable in the long term, which challenges its international budget constraints.

Russia’s foreign trade in 2015 showed a positive balance despite a drop in both exports and imports, with the ruble’s devaluation impacting trade.

Ruble devaluation generally boosts exports and reduces imports, but other factors, like global prices, also influence trade patterns.

The study on Spain’s maritime trade found that transport costs play a key role in determining export and import relationships.

Turkey’s reliance on imports, especially intermediate goods, negatively affects its exports, with exchange rates and economic instability exacerbating this dependency.