Unemployment Rate and labor Market

Unemployment Rate and labor Market

Kalpana Yedage

1. Obadic, et al, (2014). Conclude their results that significance of flexibility in European employment policies, emphasizing the balance between flexibility and security. The analysis explores flexibility components such as employment protection legislation (EPL) and unemployment benefits, aiming to address modern labor market challenges while enhancing job security. The paper observes a trend of reducing EPL strictness in the past decade, particularly in OECD countries. The focus is on finding equilibrium between employee protection and efficient labor allocation, with the Scandinavian countries, the United Kingdom, and Ireland standing out for their balanced flexibility The article concludes with the importance of social dialogue and involvement of all social partners in implementing flexibility, offering insights based on descriptive statistics from OECD and European Commission databases.

2. Carel, (2017). Emphasized researcher at the Bureau of Market Research at the University of South Africa, predicts a rise in unemployment until 2018, particularly affecting graduates. This assessment follows Statistics SA’s Quarterly Labour Force Survey, which revealed an increase in the unemployment rate to 27.7%, the highest in 14 years. research indicates that economic growth rates will be below 1% in 2017 and 2018, resulting in over a million more unemployed individuals. He emphasizes the need for measures such as decolonizing higher education, focusing on personal skills, and transforming graduate training to prioritize entrepreneurship. The statistics are expected to impact current students, prompting a call for education aligned with the country’s scarce skills and entrepreneurship needs.

3. Thorpe,  (2001). Conclude their results that In June, the Canadian economy unexpectedly lost 13,000 jobs, marking the first decline since February, with part-time employment experiencing a significant drop. The manufacturing sector continued to weaken due to the U.S. economic downturn. Despite expectations for a small job gain, analysts were surprised by the negative outcome. The unemployment rate remained steady at 7%, and economists suggested that the deteriorating labor market might prompt a 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada. While acknowledging the current weakness, experts expressed optimism for an improved second half, driven by interest rate and tax cuts stimulating the U.S. economy. The report highlighted declines in part-time jobs, manufacturing, and certain sectors, with signs of economic struggle, potentially leading to further interest rate adjustments by the Bank of Canada.

4. Gilpin,  (2003). Emphasized In August, U.S. unemployment data revealed a surprising drop in nonfarm payroll employment by 93,000, marking the seventh consecutive decline. Despite this, the jobless rate slightly decreased to 6.1 percent. Economists expected stable or higher employment, causing concern, especially as other indicators suggested economic growth. Factors such as surging productivity, global business investments, and labor-saving technology were noted as structural shifts affecting the job market. The impact of a blackout in the Northeast and Midwest on the data was considered minimal. The subdued reaction in financial markets and challenges in generating job growth were highlighted, posing potential political issues for President George W. Bush. The emphasis on revitalizing the manufacturing sector was noted, and manufacturing payrolls continued to decline. The service sector lost 67,000 jobs, while health care and construction saw gains. The report indicated a largely unchanged workforce, with concerns about long-term unemployment. The report concluded with varying forecasts, with some economists expecting job growth in the fourth quarter but acknowledging potential limitations due to structural changes in the labor market.

5. Clancy,  (2009). Conclude their results that changes in the UK’s labor market over the past 20 years, emphasizing its significant role in the economy. It delves into the intricate relationship between macroeconomic indicators and the labor market, addressing factors such as international migration, gender participation, and the impact of economic policies. The piece highlights the complexity of this relationship and explores how shifts in labor supply and demand affect macroeconomic dynamics, including inflation and wage growth. It also connects these economic aspects to global influences, such as commodity prices and the 2008 financial crisis. The discussion extends to the economic developments in 2008, examining the disconnectedness of the UK’s economy with global factors and specific events like the credit crisis. Overall, the article aims to provide insights into the intricate interplay between the labor market and the broader economic landscape.

6. Freeman,  et al, (2006). Conclude their results that  text discusses two contrasting narratives regarding the future of the labor market in the United States. The “Impending Shortage” narrative predicts a labor shortage due to the retirement of the baby boomer generation, slower growth in new entrants, and concerns about skill shortages. This view calls for increased immigration, education spending, and guest worker programs. In contrast, the “Globalization Surplus” narrative suggests a labor surplus resulting from global economic trends, particularly the spread of capitalism to China and India, leading to increased competition and potential wage pressure. The author rejects the impending shortage claim, arguing that demographic changes may not consistently affect labor market conditions, and emphasizes the importance of global factors in assessing the U.S. labor market. The discussion also touches on concerns about skilled labor growth and the need for education and training.

7. Jędrzejczyk,  (2023). Emphasized the text explores the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the labor market in Poland from 2019 to 2023. Initially, the pandemic caused disruptions, increasing the unemployment rate to 6.8% by the end of 2020. However, the situation improved, stabilizing at 5.2-5.5% from May 2022 to April 2023. The Occupational Barometer analysis reveals a prevalence of deficit occupations, where vacancies exceed qualified candidates. Surplus occupations were minimal. Remote work saw a significant increase, emphasizing the importance of adaptability and technology-related skills. Government measures, such as the Anti-Crisis Shield, aimed to protect jobs and mitigate economic challenges. The article concludes that while the pandemic brought temporary changes, the labor market in Poland largely returned to per-pandemic

8. Colebatch, (2000). Conclude their results that global trend of decreasing unemployment rates, with Australia expected to reach its lowest level in almost 20 years. The phenomenon is not unique to Australia, as unemployment is declining worldwide, particularly in Western countries. By June, half of Western European countries had unemployment rates below 5%, and Asia and the US also experienced significant improvements. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates robust global economic growth, with every region contributing to the boom. Noteworthy success stories include the Netherlands and Ireland, showcasing substantial job growth and reduced unemployment. The US, while not having the lowest unemployment rate in the West, has achieved widespread decreases across diverse regions. However, some countries still face regional disparities, such as Italy and Germany, where significant gaps persist between the more affluent areas and those with higher unemployment rates. Overall, the global economy is witnessing a positive shift, with unemployment rates decreasing in various regions.

9. Edwards,  (2024). Emphasized Despite the US unemployment rate standing at a historically low 3.7%, there are indications of weakness in the labor market. Job gain revisions show cumulative downward revisions, often seen before economic slowdowns. Job gains are mainly in non-cyclical sectors, potentially signaling an economic downturn. The rate of change in the unemployment rate is concerning, rising more than 30 basis points on a year-over-year basis, historically associated with recessions. Job-seeker sentiment is worsening, as shown by survey results indicating a decline in job availability perception. Job openings are dropping at a pace seen in previous recessions, and both quits and new hires are falling, suggesting a cooling labor market.

10. Bhowmik, (2016). Conclude their results that evolution of Keynesian and post-Keynesian analysis in macroeconomics, focusing on the nexus between GDP growth and employment growth rates. It highlights the challenges posed by global economic crises and the inadequacy of classical, Keynesian, and neo-Keynesian theories in explaining underemployment. The text references over 10,000 research papers on growth and employment, emphasizing the varied relationship between GDP growth and unemployment across countries and periods. The discussion extends to the impact of global factors, such as monetary and fiscal policies, on national employment and growth policies. The paper delves into the specific case of India during the economic reform period, exploring different econometric models, including semi-log linear, exponential, ARIMA, and VAR models. The analysis covers the behavioral patterns of unemployment growth, structural breaks, cyclical patterns, and the nexus between GDP growth and unemployment in India.

11. Conclude their results that presents diverse perspectives and analyses related to global labor markets, addressing topics such as flexibility in European employment policies, unemployment predictions, economic challenges, unexpected job losses, crisis response measures, contrasting narratives about the U.S. labor market, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Poland’s labor market, and the global trend of decreasing unemployment rates. While some regions, like Australia and the U.S., boast historically low unemployment rates, concerns arise from indicators such as job gain revisions, non-cyclical sector dominance, and a decline in job-seeker sentiment, suggesting potential weaknesses in the overall labor market. The paragraphs collectively highlight the complexity of global labor dynamics, encompassing regional variations, economic shifts, and responses to crises, underscoring the need for adaptive policies and ongoing evaluation of workforce conditions.

REFERENCES:–

1. Bhowmik, D. (2016). RELATION BETWEEN GDP GROWTH RATE AND UNEMPLOYMENT GROWTH RATE IN INDIA SINCE THE REFORM PERIOD. Prestige International Journal of Management & IT- Sanchayan, 5(1), 94-113. Retrieved from https://www.proquest.com/scholarly-journals/relation-between-gdp-growth-rate-unemployment/docview/1836543848/se-2

2. Clancy, G. (2009). The labor market and the economy: 20 years reviewed. Economic & Labour Market Review, 3(2), 17-20. Retrieved from https://www.proquest.com/scholarly-journals/labour-market-economy-20-years-reviewed/docview/233249693/se-2

3. Colebatch, T. (2000, Aug 12). Unemployment: Western world works it out; LABOR MARKET: :[late edition] The age Retrieved  https://www.proquest.com/newspapers/unemployment-western-world-works-out-labor-market/docview/363379351/se-2

4. Edwards, W. (2024, Jan 17). 7 ways the labor market looks like it’s in recession mode despite a low unemployment. https://www.proquest.com/newspapers/7-ways-labor-market-looks-like-recession-mode/docview/2915676282/se-2

5. Freeman, R. B., Bhalla, S. S., & Deardorff, A. V. (2006). Labor market imbalances: Shortages, surpluses, or what?/Comments on “labor market imbalances: Shortages, surpluses, or what?”  by Richard Conference Series, (51), 159-195,362-364,366. Retrieved from https://www.proquest.com/trade-journals/labor-market-imbalances-shortages-surpluses-what/docview/206789360/se-2

6. Gilpin, K. N. (2003, Sep 06). In surprise, U.S. lost more jobs in august unemployment rate falls, but worries for labor market grow: [1].International Herald Tribune Retrieved from https://www.proquest.com/newspapers/surprise-u-s-lost-more-jobs-august-unemployment/docview/318401177/se-2

7. Graduates swell the jobless queues: Highest unemployment rate in 14 years is hitting even the most qualified youth labour market. (2017, Aug 13). Cape Argus Retrieved from https://www.proquest.com/newspapers/graduates-swell-jobless-queues/docview/1928127051/se-2

8. Jędrzejczyk, W. (2023). Changes in the labor market in the era of the COVID-19 pandemic: Occupations desired by employers in the polish labor market. Kidmore End: Academic Conferences International Limited. Retrieved from https://www.proquest.com/conference-papers-proceedings/changes-labor-market-era-covid-19-pandemic/docview/2871352849/se-2

9. Obadic, A., & Dragicevic, M. (2014). A New Labor Market Approach: Keeping Jobs And Enhancing Labour Market Flexibility. Varazdin: Varazdin Development and Entrepreneurship Agency (VADEA). Retrieved from https://www.proquest.com/conference-papers-proceedings/new-labor-market-approach-keeping-jobs-enhancing/docview/1542112293/se-2

10. Thorpe, J. (2001, Jul 07). Labour market shows no spark: Unemployment rate remains at 7% for four month running: [national edition].National Post Retrieved from https://www.proquest.com/newspapers/labour-market-shows-no-spark-unemployment-rate/docview/329778694/se-2