Impact of climate change on agriculture in India.
Aakanksha Gupta
Literature review:
Indicators:
The average temperature of all over the globe has risen by around one degree Celsius. This magnitude and rate of warming cannot be explained alone by natural variations and must necessarily take into account changes due to human activities also. Climate extremes globally (e.g., heat waves, droughts, heavy precipitation, and severe cyclones), changes in precipitation and wind patterns (including shifts in the global monsoon systems), warming and acidification of the global oceans, melting of sea ice and glaciers, rising sea levels, and changes in marine and terrestrial ecosystems. The area affected by drought has also increased by 1.3% per decade over the same period. The frequency of very severe cyclonic storms (VSCSs) during the post-monsoon season has increased significantly (+1 event per decade) during the last two decades (2000–2018).
Causes:
Generating power- Generating electricity and heat by burning fossil fuels causes a large chunk of global emissions. Most electricity is still generated by burning coal, oil, or gas, which produces carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide – powerful greenhouse gases that blanket the Earth and trap the sun’s heat.
Manufacturing goods- This industry is one of the largest contributors to Greenhouse gas emission worldwide. For production of cement, iron, steel, electronics, plastics, clothes their machines runs by burning fossil fuels and mostly uses coal, oil or gas. Deforestation- Cutting down forests to create farms or pastures, or for other reasons, causes emissions, since trees, when they are cut, release the carbon they have been storing. Each year approximately 12 million hectares of forest are destroyed. Using transportation, powering buildings, uses of fertilizer, consuming too much of electronics, clothing, and plastics.
Effects:
Hotter temperatures- As greenhouse gas concentrations rise, so does the global surface temperature. The last decade, 2011-2020, is the warmest on record. Since the 1980s, each decade has been warmer than the previous one.
More severe storms- The frequency and extent of tropical storms is also affected by the warming ocean. Cyclones, hurricanes, and typhoons feed on warm waters at the ocean surface. Such storms often destroy homes and communities, causing deaths and huge economic losses. Melting ice sheets causing sea levels rises. the ocean absorbs carbon dioxide, keeping it from the atmosphere. But more carbon dioxide makes the ocean more acidic, which endangers marine life and coral reefs. Increased drought, deserts are expanding, reducing land for growing food. Now facing the threat of not having water.
Loss of species- One million species are at risk of becoming extinct within the next few decades. Forest fires, extreme weather, and invasive pests and diseases are among many threats related to climate change. Some species will be able to relocate and survive, but others will not. More health risks as climate change is the single biggest health threat facing humanity. It’s harming our health through air pollution, disease, extreme weather events and increased hunger and poor nutrition.
Challenges:
The evidences indicate a decrease in production of crops in different parts of India with an increase in temperature. A number of studies indicate a probability of 10% to 40% loss in crop production in India with increases in temperature by 2080-2100. Increasing climate sensitivity of Indian agriculture will lead to greater instability of India’s food production which will also impact on poverty and livelihoods. How quickly Indian farmers are able to adjust their farming practices to adapt to climate change, and what policies or technologies will enable rapid adaptation to climate change are issues that merit attention.
Gap:
This study has investigated the impact of climate change, especially rising temperature, on land use in agriculture or cropping patterns, presupposing that climate change influences farmers’ acreage allocation decisions via its effects on crops’ comparative yield advantage. The findings show that excess temperature negatively impacts crop yields, and the impact is higher in the plausible future climate scenarios
Strategy:
A crucial problem with such arguments is that they do not adequately study data on agricultural production over time, and across regions, crops, and socio-economic strata of producers, in order to understand the environmental and socio-economic dimensions of the climate-sensitivity of agriculture. Further, many studies routinely conflate problems of current climate vulnerability with problems of adaptation to climate change in the future. The authors discuss various strategies for adaptation, including the development of climate-resistant crop varieties, improved water management, and the promotion of sustainable agriculture practices
Vulnerability index:
This paper assesses climate change in Karnataka, the agriculture and livelihoods contexts of vulnerability. Karnataka state has the second largest area under rainfed agriculture in India and several studies have
shown that climate change is happening in the state. Agriculture sector is vulnerable to climate variability and change across its three regions: coastal, hilly and plains. Indicators like cropping intensity, gross area irrigated and commercial crop area are the major drivers in determining the agricultural vulnerability. Livelihood index indicators like per capita income, population density, percentage of literacy rate and livestock units are major drivers for livelihood vulnerability.
Awareness:
India has to maintain the sustainability of its ecosystems to meet the food and non-food needs of a growing population. India is home to the largest number of hungry and deprived people in the world – to be precise 360 million undernourished and 300 million poor people. Sustaining the supply of food itself is emerging as a critical issue. Growth in food grain production has been slow if not decreasing, over the last few decades. To cope with the impact of climate change on agriculture and food production, India will need to act at the global, regional, national and local levels. This finding poses an important question for future research, for the welfare of Indian agriculture, how quickly will Indian farmers be able to adjust their farming practices to adapt to the changing climate and what policies or technologies will enable rapid adaptation to climate change.
Women:
Climate change adaptation interventions can be better targeted by being linked with type of climatic risks experienced by women farmers, their social profile and their needs based on the role they play in agriculture. This study presents a methodology to identify hotspots where climate change adaptation and gender based interventions could be prioritized. The methodology is illustrated for India. The results suggest 36 hotspots across 10 states in India, where large number of women farmers are impacted by high levels of drought probability, excess rainfall and heat wave. The target population in these hotspots comprise 14.4% of the total women farmers in the country. A socioeconomic characterization of the hotspot population highlights barriers, such as labor, credit and market access for female cultivators and lower wage rates for female laborers in these hotspots
Temperature:
We found a discerning impact of the climate variables on net revenue and hence wellbeing of the rural people. Looking at the marginal climate effects by seasons, January, April and July temperatures have negative influence, while the October temperature effect is positive. However, simulation of monsoon precipitation in July has almost no effect on the farm revenue. Finally, we found a moderate variation in consumption for climate-induced change in net revenue.
References-
https://reliefweb.int/report/india/assessment-climate-change-over-indian-region-report-ministry-earth-sciences-moes
https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/science/causes-effects-climate-change
https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/science/causes-effects-climate-change
K N Ninan & Satyasiba Bedamatta, 2012. “Climate Change, Agriculture, Poverty and Livelihoods: A Status Report,” Working Papers 277, Institute for Social and Economic Change, Bangalore.
Birthal, Pratap S. & Hazrana, Jaweriah & Negi, Digvijay S. & Bhan, Subhash C., 2021. “Climate change and land-use in Indian agriculture,” Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
T. Jayaraman & Kamal Murari, 2014. “Climate Change and Agriculture: Current and Future Trends, and Implications for India,” Journal, Review of Agrarian Studies, vol. 4(1), pages 1-49, February-.
K. V. Raju & A. V. R. Kesava Rao & R. S. Deshpande, 2018. “Estimating Extent of Vulnerability of Agriculture and Livelihoods to Climate Change,” Journal of Management and Strategy, Journal of Management and Strategy, Sciedu Press, vol. 9(2), pages 82-95, May.
8- Ashutosh Mohanty (2017) Analytical Study on Impact of Climate Change on India Agriculture. SF J Global Warming https://www.academia.edu/82989785/Analytical_Study_on_Impact_of_Climate_Change_on_India_Agriculture
9-Nitya Chanana-Nag & Pramod K. Aggarwal, 2020. “Woman in agriculture, and climate risks: hotspots for development,” Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 158(1), pages 13-27, January.
10- Kar, Saibal & Das, Nimai, 2015. “Climate Change, Agricultural Production, and Poverty in India,” MPRA Paper 79404, University Library of Munich, Germany.
Conclusion-
Since the middle of the twentieth century, India has witnessed a rise in average temperature; a decrease in monsoon precipitation; a rise in extreme temperature and rainfall events, droughts, and sea levels; and an increase in the intensity of severe cyclones, alongside other changes in the monsoon system. There is compelling scientific evidence that human activities have influenced these changes in regional climate. Fossil fuels – coal, oil and gas – are by far the largest contributor to global climate change, accounting for over 75 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions and nearly 90 per cent of all carbon dioxide emissions. As greenhouse gas emissions blanket the Earth, they trap the sun’s heat. Warmer temperatures over time are changing weather patterns and disrupting the usual balance of nature.
identifies gaps in current research and highlights areas where further research is needed. For example, the authors note that there is a need for more research on the socio-economic impacts of climate change on farmers and rural communities, as well as on the effectiveness of different adaptation strategies. There’s urgent need for action to address these impacts and to support vulnerable farmers and communities in adapting to a changing climate an also emphasizing the need for gender-sensitive approaches to climate change adaptation and mitigation in agriculture. Now as there’s a necessity for greater investment in research and development to support the development of new technologies and practices that can help to build resilience to climate change in the agricultural sector.