Title:
A Study on Relationship between Market Returns (NIFTY 50) and Stock Returns of Ujjivan Small Finance Bank Limited and its Significance
Author:
Umair Khan (20)
Introduction:
Ujjivan Small Finance Bank Limited is a small finance bank in India focused on providing financial services to underserved and unbanked sections of society. It offers services such as savings accounts, loans, and microfinance facilities. The bank plays an important role in financial inclusion and economic development. Being listed on the NSE, its stock performance reflects both company growth and overall market conditions.
Objective:
Calculation of Beta and observe its Significance
Literature Review:
According to Stephen A. Ross, stock returns are influenced by multiple economic factors and systematic risk plays a key role in determining expected returns. Regression analysis helps in identifying how strongly a stock reacts to market movements.
As stated by John Lintner, beta is an important measure of risk that reflects the sensitivity of a stock’s returns to changes in the overall market. It is widely used by investors to assess risk and make investment decisions.
Data Collection:
Data for NIFTY 50 and my company “Ujjivan Small Finance Bank Limited” was downloaded from NSE India.com for the period 1-1-2025 to 31-12-2025 Friday closing prices for NIFTY 50 and my company was segregated weekly and returns were calculated. Weekly returns of NIFTY 50 were taken as X and weekly returns of the company were taken as Y. Y was taken as regress.
Data Analysis:
Regression Equation
N = 48, F = 60.45, p = 0.00, x = 0.96, R² = 0.57,
Y = 0.0013 + 0.96X
Interpretation:
The above equation shows the relationship between market return and company return. The positive sign of beta indicates that there is a direct relationship between NIFTY and the stock of Ujjivan Small Finance Bank Limited, which means if market rises the company return also rises and vice versa.
If NIFTY return increases by 1 unit, the return of the company will increase by 0.96 units. Number of observations are 48. The value of β (Beta) is 0.96.
The p-value is less than 0.05 which means beta is statistically significant at 5% level. R² is approximately 0.57 which means 57% of variation in company return is explained by market return and 43% is due to other factors not included in the model.
Thus, the model is significant and there is a moderate positive relationship between NIFTY and the company’s returns.
Conclusion:
Since beta is close to 1, it means the stock moves in line with the market and is suitable for moderate risk investors.
References:
Ross, S. A. (1976). Arbitrage Pricing Theory. Journal of Economic Theory.
Lintner, J. (1965). The Valuation of Risk Assets. Review of Economics and Statistics.
National Stock Exchange of India – Historical Market Data