Title: Relationship between Nifty 50 and Parag Milk Foods Ltd.
Author: Pranay Zagade.(109)
1. Introduction:
Parag Milk Foods Ltd is one of the leading dairy-based FMCG companies in India, engaged in the production and distribution of milk and value-added dairy products. The company operates well-known brands such as Gowardhan, Go, Pride of Cows, and Avvatar. With a strong focus on quality and innovation, the company has built a strong presence in both domestic and premium dairy segments. This report analyzes the relationship between Parag Milk Foods Ltd. and the broader market index, Nifty 50.
2. Objective:
To calculate Beta and analyze the impact of market movements on Parag Milk Foods Ltd.
3. Literature Review:
According to JM Financial (2018), Parag Milk Foods has developed a strong brand portfolio and focuses heavily on value-added dairy products, which contribute a major share of its revenue
According to Edelweiss Investment Research (2017), Parag Milk Foods operates as an integrated dairy player with a strong focus on value-added products and innovation, supporting its long-term growth and profitability.
4. Data Collection:
Data for Nifty 50 and Parag Milk Foods Ltd was collected for the period of 1 January 2025 to 31 December 2025. Weekly closing prices were considered, and returns were calculated. Nifty 50 returns are taken as independent variable (X) and Parag Milk returns as dependent variable (Y).
5. Data Analysis:
|
Nifty 50 Returns |
Paragmilk Returns |
|
X |
Y |
|
-2.39 |
-6.54 |
|
-0.97 |
-2.58 |
|
-0.48 |
-4.14 |
|
1.80 |
3.88 |
|
0.22 |
2.35 |
|
-2.68 |
-7.46 |
|
-0.58 |
-2.72 |
|
-2.94 |
-7.85 |
|
1.93 |
12.72 |
|
3.54 |
-2.14 |
|
0.72 |
-6.18 |
|
-2.61 |
16.14 |
|
-0.33 |
5.14 |
|
5.30 |
0.99 |
|
1.28 |
-1.24 |
|
-1.39 |
4.42 |
|
4.21 |
12.86 |
|
-0.67 |
-2.50 |
|
-0.41 |
0.82 |
|
1.02 |
0.47 |
|
-1.14 |
1.15 |
|
1.59 |
-1.45 |
|
2.09 |
5.46 |
|
-0.69 |
3.96 |
|
-1.22 |
0.65 |
|
-0.72 |
9.51 |
|
-0.53 |
-1.61 |
|
-1.09 |
-4.88 |
|
-0.82 |
-4.74 |
|
2.08 |
3.75 |
|
-1.78 |
-3.91 |
|
1.29 |
10.47 |
|
1.51 |
10.69 |
|
0.85 |
6.07 |
|
-2.65 |
-8.32 |
|
0.97 |
4.57 |
|
1.57 |
-1.15 |
|
1.68 |
2.33 |
|
0.33 |
5.75 |
|
-0.28 |
3.28 |
|
-0.89 |
1.88 |
|
1.64 |
11.42 |
|
0.61 |
-4.43 |
|
0.52 |
-1.70 |
|
-0.06 |
-7.09 |
|
-0.53 |
3.66 |
|
-0.31 |
-3.45 |
|
0.29 |
-6.17 |
|
SUMMARY OUTPUT |
|
|
||||||
|
Regression Statistics |
||||||||
|
Multiple R |
0.37 |
|||||||
|
R Square |
0.14 |
|||||||
|
Adjusted R Square |
0.12 |
|||||||
|
Standard Error |
1.64 |
|||||||
|
Observations |
48.00 |
|||||||
|
ANOVA |
||||||||
|
|
df |
SS |
MS |
F |
Significance F |
|||
|
Regression |
1.00 |
19.29 |
19.29 |
7.19 |
0.01 |
|||
|
Residual |
46.00 |
123.33 |
2.68 |
|
||||
|
Total |
47.00 |
142.62 |
|
|
|
|||
|
|
Coefficients |
Standard Error |
t Stat |
P-value |
Lower 95% |
Upper 95% |
Lower 95.0% |
Upper 95.0% |
|
Intercept |
0.07 |
0.24 |
0.29 |
0.77 |
-0.41 |
0.55 |
-0.41 |
0.55 |
|
Y |
0.11 |
0.04 |
2.68 |
0.01 |
0.03 |
0.18 |
0.03 |
0.18 |
The equation above indicates the relationship between Market Return (X) and Parag Milk Foods Ltd Return (Y). The R Square value is 0.14, which means 14% of the variance in Parag Milk return is explained by Market Return. The remaining 86% is the error, which is due to other factors not included in the model.
The F value is and its P-value is 0.01, which is less than 0.05, hence the model is statistically significant at 5% level. The P-value of the coefficient is also 0.01, which is less than 0.05, indicating that the market return has a significant impact on Parag Milk return.
The intercept is 0.07, which means if the market return is 0, then the return on Parag Milk Foods Ltd is expected to be 0.07%. The coefficient of market return (Beta) is 0.11, which means for every 1 unit increase in market return, Parag Milk return increases by 0.11 units.
The number of observations used in the analysis is 48.
6. Conclusion:
The beta value of 0.11 indicates that Parag Milk Foods Ltd is a low-beta stock with low sensitivity to market movements. Although the relationship with the market is statistically significant, the low R Square value suggests that company-specific factors have a greater influence on stock performance. Therefore, the stock can be considered relatively stable compared to high-beta stocks.
7.Reference:
1. Edelweiss Investment Research. (2017, August). Parag Milk Foods Ltd.: Value added player; FMCG in making. Edelweiss. https://www.nuvamawealth.com/ewwebimages/WebFiles/Research/567ab786-dbcb-4dfa-be0c-1f05918cb85f.pdf
2. JM Financial (2018). Parag Milk Foods – Initiating Coverage Report. https://www.hdfcsec.com/hsl.research.pdf/Parag%20Milk%20Foods%20Ltd%20-%20Stock%20Note.pdf
3. NSE India. (n.d.). National Stock Exchange of India. https://www.nseindia.com