Title: Relation of BPCL with Nifty50
Author: Bhavesh Jain
Introduction: Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) is one of India’s leading oil
and gas companies, headquartered in Mumbai. It is a public sector undertaking (PSU) under
the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, Government of India. Established in 1952, BPCL
operates in refining, marketing, and distribution of petroleum products. The company plays a
crucial role in ensuring energy security for India by refining crude oil and producing petrol,
diesel, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). BPCL is also involved in the exploration and
production of hydrocarbons, both domestically and internationally. Over the years, BPCL has
expanded its operations through strategic investments and modernization initiatives, making
it a key player in India's energy sector.
Objective: To determine the Beta of BPCL and its significance.
Literature Review:
Oil & Gas Industry Volatility and Market Correlations
Gourdon, Daniel et al. (2023) present refined methodologies for evaluating energy sector
volatility and correlations with market indices. The study highlights how oil prices, refining
margins, and global economic conditions impact the stock performance of oil companies like
BPCL. The authors suggest using firm-level indicators such as profitability ratios and
production metrics to assess market behavior more accurately. This study provides insights
into dynamic models for oil and gas sector analysis.
Economic Growth and the Petroleum Sector
David (2017) investigated the relationship between the oil and gas industry and economic
growth. Using panel data from 1990 to 2015, the study employs econometric models to assess
how fluctuations in crude oil prices and refining capacity influence GDP growth. The
findings indicate a strong correlation between an efficient petroleum sector and national
economic performance, particularly in emerging economies like India.
Data Collection: BPCL and Nifty50 data were downloaded for the period 01-01-2024 to 31-
12-2024. The data were manipulated to find out the Friday closing prices, where Nifty50 = X
and BPCL = Y. A regression analysis was performed with Y regressed on X.
Data Analysis:
Equation: BPCL = 0.0023 + 0.04422 Nifty50
Interpretation: The regression equation describes the relationship between Nifty50
(X) and BPCL's share price (Y), indicating that BPCL's share price is the dependent
variable, while Nifty50 is the independent variable. The positive coefficient of
0.04422 suggests that for every unit increase in Nifty50, BPCL's share price is
expected to increase by 0.04422 units. With 47 observations (), the value is 0.0579,
implying that approximately 5.79% of the variation in BPCL's share price can be
explained by changes in Nifty50. The F-value for the model is 2.7672. However,
without a p-value provided, statistical significance cannot be conclusively
determined. Consequently, this model provides limited evidence of a linear
relationship between Nifty50 and BPCL's share price
Conclusion: BPCL’s beta of 0.04 indicates that it is suitable for long term Investment.
Reference: Karin Gourdon & Laurent Daniel & Takuya Adachi & Emilie Berger, 2023.
"New Approaches to Energy Sector Volatility Assessment," OECD Science, Technology, and
Industry Policy Papers 140, OECD Publishing.
David Perry, 2017. "2016 Status Report on Major Energy Sector Developments," SPP
Research Papers, The School of Public Policy, University of Calgary, vol. 10(22), September.