TOPIC : ECONOMIC INSTABILITY
NAME: SHIVANI ASHOK INGOLE
1) GLOBALIZATION AND INSTABILITY
Mertens, Johan, 2018
,The article “Financial Globalization and Instability in the Early 21st Century” by Johan Mertens deals with the complexities of financial globalization and its effects on global economic stability, particularly in the context of both developed and developing economies. The article compares the economic volatility of advanced economies (like the US and Europe) and developing nations. While advanced economies have experienced a decrease in economic instability in recent decades, many developing countries still face significant volatility, largely due to the fluctuating nature of global financial markets and external shocks.
This article uses India as a case study to examine the evolution of economic volatility in developing countries. Over the past two decades, India has seen a significant reduction in GDP volatility due to:
A transition from an agrarian to a diversified industrial and service-based economy.Growth in more sophisticated and deeper financial markets ,improved trade terms that shield the economy from global disruptions.The article also discusses the broader effects of financial globalization. While it offers growth opportunities, it also introduces risks like capital flow volatility, market speculation, and external debt, complicating the relationship between global markets and national economies.For many developing nations, instability is exacerbated by external factors such as commodity price swings, interest rate changes in developed countries, and unpredictable foreign direct investment (FDI), leading to financial crises and slowed growth.while financial globalization brings growth potential, it also heightens the risk of financial crises. Effective economic policy management and financial regulation are vital for maintaining stability, especially in developing countries vulnerable to external shocks.
2) LINKAGES BETWEEN FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND INSTABILITY
Enowbi Batuo & Simplice Asongu, 2017.
The study titled “Linkages between Financial Development, Financial Instability, Financial Liberalisation, and Economic Growth in Africa” investigates the interconnections among financial development, financial instability, financial liberalisation, and economic growth across 41 African countries from 1985 to 2010.
From this article we can find that , financial development and financial liberalisation have a positive and significant effect on financial instability in African countries.
Economic growth plays a crucial role in reducing financial instability, during the pre liberalization period the mitigating effect of economic growth on financial instability was more impactfull than post liberalisation period.
The financial development and liberalisation can promote economic growth, they may also lead to increased financial instability.
Carefull design and implementation of financial reforms can balance the benefits of financial development and liberalisation.
This research helps in undrstanding of the complex relationship between financial policies and economic outcomes in african countries .
3) POLITICAL CONFLICT AND ECONOMIC INSTABILITY
Ali Compaore etal.2020
This paper examines the impact of conflicts and political instability on the likelihood of banking crises in developing countries from 1970 to 2016. It highlights how conflicts, particularly since the Arab Spring, have led to severe socio-economic consequences, such as loss of life, displacement, and economic decline. The study finds that conflicts significantly reduce GDP growth and destabilize neighboring countries. It focuses on the often-overlooked link between conflicts and banking crises, showing that conflicts increase the risk of such crises by 2.5 times. The paper identifies fiscal crises as a key channel through which conflicts affect the banking sector, weakening financial stability. It provides robust empirical evidence, filling a gap in existing literature, and emphasizes the need to address the financial vulnerabilities of conflict-affected countries.The impact of conflicts and political instability in neighboring countries on the likelihood of experiencing banking crises. The study finds that such instability can spill over into a country’s banking sector, especially as financial globalization increases. The results show that both the number and intensity of conflicts, as well as political instability in neighboring countries, raise the probability of a banking crisis in a given country. Specifically, the more countries affected by conflict, the higher the risk, with a rise in the number of bordering countries at war increasing the likelihood of a banking crisis from 6.3% to 11.2%.Furthermore, the study investigates the transmission channels through which conflicts and instability affect banking crises, suggesting that fiscal crises are a key factor. When a fiscal crisis occurs simultaneously with conflict or political instability, it significantly contributes to the banking crisis risk. The data indicate that once fiscal crises are accounted for, the impact of conflict and instability on banking crises becomes negligible, highlighting the role of fiscal distress in triggering banking crises.Conflicts and political instability in neighboring countries have a spillover effect that increases the likelihood of banking crises, especially when they lead to fiscal crises. The duration of instability also amplifies these risks
The study investigates the impact of conflict and political instability on the likelihood of banking crises. It tests various indicators used in previous literature to capture these phenomena, such as country risk indicators, civil war and political violence data, and terrorism. The findings consistently show that conflict and political instability, including civil wars, terrorism, and political assassinations, are strongly associated with an increased likelihood of banking crises. The study also explores the role of additional covariates like global financial conditions, natural resource endowments, corruption, and financial development, confirming that the impact of conflict remains robust even after controlling for these factors.The paper highlights that conflict and instability can have negative spillover effects on neighboring countries, raising the probability of banking crises elsewhere. The primary transmission mechanism is through fiscal crises, as conflicts can weaken government revenue and institutions. The authors emphasize the importance of addressing the root causes of conflict and political instability through sound economic policies to reduce their negative impacts, including the risk of banking crises.
4) GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISES AND ECONOMIC INSTABILITY
Silvia MĂRGINEAN etal.2011
The article discusses the decline of Keynesian economics, particularly in the face of global financial crises and the evolving nature of world capitalism. It suggests that Keynesian theory, once a dominant economic paradigm, has lost relevance due to the changing global power dynamics and the failure to address modern economic instabilities. Key concepts such as the Phillips curve and social wage pressures have limited the effectiveness of Keynesian policies.The article emphasizes the need for macroeconomists to focus on present-day problems, particularly the financial crises, and to question existing economic theories. The authors argue that the current financial instability, particularly following the U.S. financial crisis, challenges traditional Keynesian approaches and exposes weaknesses in modern macroeconomic theory, especially its reliance on stable equilibrium models.They argue that the financial markets, driven by complex and rapidly evolving financial instruments, have failed to self-regulate as the “Invisible Hand” theory suggests. The financial crisis reveals significant systemic problems like instability in leverage, price levels, and financial network connectivity, which modern macroeconomic models overlook.
The article draws on Keynes’s work, particularly his “Treatise on Money,” to argue that the current crisis can be seen as a process of deleveraging, where firms reduce investment and banks hoard liquidity. This, in turn, exacerbates recessions. It contrasts the experiences of Japan and Nordic countries during financial crises, highlighting how different responses to banking system crises can lead to varying outcomes.The article concludes by noting the failure of central banking doctrines during the crisis. The widespread reliance on monetary policy focused on inflation targeting proved insufficient, as demonstrated by the drastic measures taken by central banks like the Federal Reserve. These unconventional responses underscore the need for a rethinking of both central banking and macroeconomic theory in the face of modern financial crises.This article critiques the failure of contemporary economic theory and policies, particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve’s approach to monetary policy in the wake of the dot.com crash. The Federal Reserve drastically lowered interest rates, which stabilized consumer goods prices due to competition from imports, but this policy also contributed to the creation of a significant asset price bubble, particularly in real estate, and a deterioration in credit quality. The article argues that the inflation targeting regime was flawed, as it assumed that low inflation meant the correct interest rates, but this view ignored the real effects of monetary policy on asset prices and credit standards.Furthermore, the article critiques modern macroeconomic theory, especially the assumptions underlying dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, including the real interest rate, Ricardian equivalence, and the use of the representative agent model. It argues that these models have been proven wrong by real-world economic events, such as repeated financial crises and the failure of assumptions about rational expectations and intertemporal equilibrium.In conclusion, the article suggests three lessons from Keynes: 1) focus on the macroeconomic problems of today, particularly the ongoing credit crisis; 2) reconsider standard Keynesian policies and central banking doctrines, as they are no longer sufficient; and 3) revise existing economic theories, particularly DSGE models, which have proven ineffective. The article advocates for moving beyond outdated economic theories and incorporating new insights to address modern financial challenges.
5)CLIMATE CHANGE AND FINANCIAL INSTABILITY
Francesco Lamperti etal.2019
The article examines how climate change impacts the global banking system and financial stability. Using an agent-based climate-macroeconomic model, the study quantifies the economic and financial effects of climate-induced damages to labor productivity and capital stock. The results suggest that climate change significantly increases the frequency of banking crises, raising the need for government bailouts, which in turn imposes a substantial fiscal burden.Increased Banking Crises: Climate change leads to a higher frequency of banking crises, increasing by 26-248% depending on the scenario. Bank bailouts can cost governments around 5-15% of GDP per year, with the debt-to-GDP ratio potentially doubling.Public Costs: The public costs of rescuing banks are significant, with bailout costs increasing as global temperatures rise. In extreme climate scenarios (SSP5), these costs could reach up to 40% of GDP per episode by the end of the century.Impact on Economic Growth: Climate change reduces economic growth rates due to the adverse effects on labor productivity and capital stock, as well as the cascading bankruptcies of firms that create non-performing loans. This leads to reduced investments and credit availability, deepening economic downturns.Macroprudential Regulation: While financial regulations, such as capital requirements, can mitigate some of the financial distress caused by climate change, they are insufficient to prevent the broader economic impacts. A more comprehensive climate-finance policy mix is needed to address these risks.In conclusion, the study highlights the critical need for integrating climate risks into financial regulation and emphasizes the significant role of governments in
managing the financial consequences of climate change. Without action, climate-related financial instability could severely undermine global economic stability.
6)FINANCIAL INSTABILITY AND AFRICAN COUNTRIES
Batuo Enowbi,2012
This study explores the relationship between financial liberalisation, financial development, financial instability, and economic growth in 41 African countries from 1985 to 2010. The research highlights two key points: firstly, financial liberalisation and development are linked to increased financial instability, and secondly, this instability negatively impacts economic growth. The study suggests that these effects were more pronounced during the pre-liberalisation period compared to the post-liberalisation period. The paper examines how financial instability, which can manifest as banking failures, asset price volatility, or liquidity issues, disrupts economic growth, and emphasizes the importance of safeguarding financial stability to support long-term development. The findings are particularly relevant to African countries, which are undergoing rapid financial development and need to carefully manage their integration into global financial markets.
financial development and liberalisation significantly increase financial instability, which in turn negatively affects economic growth. This effect is more pronounced in the pre-liberalisation period compared to the post-liberalisation period. The paper also investigates the relationship between financial instability, financial development, and economic growth, with a focus on African countries undergoing financial sector reforms. It uses a financial instability index to measure these effects and examines the outcomes in both pre- and post-liberalisation periods. The study emphasizes the importance of addressing financial instability to foster sustainable growth in the region.
how financial liberalisation and development are fundamental to financial stability. Therefore, there is a danger that in trying to aviod financial instability, the intervention by African countries policymakers can create rigidity or financial repression policies rather than realising a more stable financial system which could be achieved by: Financial rules and regulations being designed to widen the space for the growth and stability of oriented marcoeconomic policies. At the same time it should be kept in mind that regulations can also be problematic not only because they can themselves be the source of instability and can have adverse effects on financial intermediation and development. These aspects of regulation should be taken into account when designing prudential and capital account regimes. It should take into account the particularlity of each country, no one-size-fits all solution should be adopted.
7) ROLE OF COMMODITY IN FINANCIAL STABILITY
(Chowdhury, Emon, 2023)
In this paper he emphasised the significance that commodity markets play in shaping the economies of developing countries. These markets, which involve the exchange of raw materials like agricultural goods, metals, and energy resources, contribute to export earnings, GDP, and overall economic growth in these nations. While commodity exports provide substantial revenue and can fuel growth, the impact is complex and comes with challenges.One of the main risks is the volatility of commodity prices, which can fluctuate due to global demand, geopolitical events, or climate conditions. These price swings can lead to economic downturns, fiscal constraints, and reduced GDP, particularly in oil-dependent economies. Furthermore, over-reliance on commodities often hinders investment diversification, technological progress, and human capital development, as resources are primarily allocated to the extraction and export of commodities rather than other sectors like manufacturing, services, and technology.
Despite these challenges, opportunities exist for developing countries to overcome these limitations. Technological advancements, diversification, regional integration, and sustainable production practices can help shift economies toward broader growth. Successful examples of countries transitioning from commodity dependence to industrial powerhouses, such as some Asian nations, demonstrate the potential for diversification and innovation. However, factors like corruption, political instability, and weak institutions often hinder progress, especially in regions like Africa and Latin America.Overall, the paper stresses the importance of diversification, innovation, and investment in human capital to promote sustained economic growth in commodity-dependent developing countries. While the impact of commodity markets on growth is mixed, those that manage to diversify their economies and focus on other sectors can achieve more stable and sustained growth in the long term.The article explores the significant role of commodity markets in shaping the economies of developing countries, focusing on both the opportunities and challenges they present. Commodity markets, which involve the exchange of raw goods like agricultural products, metals, and energy resources, are vital for the economies of these nations, as they rely heavily on commodity exports for revenue and growth. However, price volatility in these markets can expose these countries to economic risks, as fluctuations in demand and geopolitical events can severely impact their economic stability.The overreliance on commodities can also hinder the diversification of economies, stunting growth in other sectors like manufacturing, services, and technology. Additionally, limited investment in education and healthcare can lead to a lack of skilled labor, further restricting long-term development.s. Developing countries face risks like climate change and infrastructure deficits but can capitalize on technological innovations, regional cooperation, and sustainable practices to enhance their economic standing and reduce dependence on volatile commodities.Developing countries often rely on commodity exports like oil, minerals, and agricultural products for significant revenue. When commodity prices rise, these countries can experience increased government spending, infrastructure development, and overall economic growth. For example, Saudi Arabia benefited from high oil prices in the mid-2000s, leading to improved GDP, employment rates, and living standards.However, this dependence also makes economies vulnerable to price volatility. When commodity prices drop, it can lead to economic instability, as seen in Venezuela’s oil-dependent economy, which suffered from hyperinflation and a severe GDP contraction after oil prices fell. Additionally, the focus on commodity exports often limits investment in other sectors like manufacturing, technology, and human capital, hindering long-term growth and innovation.The article contrasts the experiences of different regions. While countries in Asia, such as South Korea and Taiwan, successfully transitioned from commodity dependence to industrialization, many African and Latin American countries face challenges like political instability, corruption, and insufficient diversification.To overcome these challenges, the article suggests that developing countries should focus on diversifying their economies, investing in infrastructure, education, and technology, and promoting sustainable production practices. Regional integration and cooperation can also help enhance market access and foster knowledge sharing. Governments should adopt policies that encourage investment in non-commodity sectors, establish stabilization funds to mitigate price volatility, and invest in human capital development.In conclusion, while commodity markets play a significant role in developing countries’ economies, it is crucial for policymakers to implement strategies that foster diversification, regional cooperation, and sustainable growth to ensure long-term economic stability.
8)ECONOMIC REFORMS AND FINANCIAL STABILITY
Krzysztof JAROSINSKI, 2023.
The purpose of this paper is to analyze the scope and effectiveness of stabilization instruments used within the public finance sector to mitigate the negative effects of these crisis phenomena. These efforts were seen both at the national level and internationally, including in the European Union and through organizations like the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The study shows that the use of public resources in stabilization efforts increased, particularly in the social and economic sectors, demonstrating the critical role of public finance in crisis management. However, the allocation of resources to stabilize the economy can have long-term consequences, such as shifts in public expenditure structure, with increased current spending, reduced investment expenditure, and an increased risk of growing budget deficits and public debt. The research focuses on the global economic context and includes a specific analysis of Poland’s national challenges. It highlights the critical role of government policies in responding to crisis-induced economic changes and suggests that while short-term stabilization measures may be necessary, they carry risks for long-term fiscal sustainability.Results of Empirical Research and DiscussionThis research examined the fiscal response to the COVID-19 crisis, particularly focusing on public administration’s role in stabilizing economies. The analysis revealed significant increases in government spending, aimed at mitigating the pandemic’s economic impact. These expenditures were largely unplanned, resulting in a higher budget deficit and rising public debt, especially in the years 2020-2022. The restructuring of budget expenditures was necessary to finance emergency interventions, particularly in public health, which resulted in a diversion from planned investment expenditure (Jarosiński, 2022).The study revealed that countries across the European Union saw an increase in their budget deficits and public debt ratios during the pandemic (Table 1 and 2). However, a slight improvement was observed starting in 2022, although the fiscal figures remained above pre-pandemic levels by 2023. The impact was also evident in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which saw a significant rise in inflation starting in 2020. The CPI growth was notably high in countries like Lithuania, Hungary, and Poland, and stabilization measures were required to mitigate inflationary pressures (Table 3).Interest rate policies also played a key role in economic stabilization. Central banks in many countries, including the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve, kept interest rates low during the initial phase of the pandemic, but later raised them to combat inflation in 2022 and 2023 (Table 4). These actions were part of a broader strategy to stabilize the economy and curb inflation.In conclusion, the research underscores the importance of proactive fiscal and monetary interventions during economic crises. Public administration played a crucial role in stabilizing economies, but the long-term effects on debt and inflation require careful management to avoid sustained economic challenges. The coordination of stabilization efforts at the EU level, alongside national fiscal measures, demonstrated the significance of both local and supranational interventions in navigating economic recessions.
9) ROLE OF HUMAN CAPITAL IN SOCIO-ECONOMIC STABILITY
Ana Maria Savu, 2013
The article explores the critical role of human capital in modern society, emphasizing its importance for economic and social progress. It starts by highlighting how global socio-economic instability, partly driven by the economic crisis, has led to significant demand for human capital. Human capital, in the modern context, refers to the value that an employee brings to an organization through their skills, knowledge, and experience.Human capital is seen as essential for innovation and economic sustainability. It has evolved into a key factor in achieving technical and technological renewal, driving competitive production, and fostering the growth of the service sector, which together contribute to the formation of an innovation-driven economy. The article notes that human capital is not just an economic factor but also a crucial element for societal progress, especially in knowledge-based societies.Globalization, rapid technological advancements, and the information revolution have significantly transformed society, affecting individuals’ interactions and their access to different knowledge and cultures. This shift has increased the need for investment in human capital, both as a producer and consumer of knowledge in a global economyFurthermore, the article underscores that human capital is not only about economic value but also about fosteringprogress in various social and productive aspects of modern life.Effective management and development of human resources, which includes education, health, and skills development, are seen as essential to achieving high productivity, innovation, and a high standard of living.The article discusses the assessment of investment in human capital in Romania, evaluating whether it leads to progress or regression. The author highlights that innovation plays a significant role in global GDP growth, particularly in developed countries, and is a key determinant of socio-economic progress and living standards. Romania, however, has faced challenges in capitalizing on human capital development, largely due to a combination of political instability, economic issues, and deficiencies in the education system.While there have been positive trends, such as increased access to education, there are negative trends in the quality of education and the performance of human capital. These issues have been exacerbated by corruption, social insurance budget overruns, and a lack of alignment between political and economic priorities. Despite these challenges, the article argues that investing in human capital should be a national priority for Romania, emphasizing the need for economic policies that support the labor market’s flexibility and increase investment in human capital to boost competitiveness.The article also stresses the importance of public health as a foundational element of human capital, as well as the need for improved health policies and community health efforts to contribute to economic growth. Additionally, the quality of the educational system is identified as a key factor for developing competitive human resources. Despite reforms over the past two decades, the educational system in Romania faces challenges in human capital development due to political, economic, and educational system issues.Despite increased access to education, the quality and relevance of education need improvement.Investment in human capital should become a national priority to boost competitiveness and economic performance.Health policies and quality education are crucial for developing skilled human resources.Strategic investments in education and continuous training are essential for adapting to future market demands and ensuring socio-economic progress
10)
THE FINANCIAL DESTABILIZING EFFECT OF EXCESS LIQUIDITY
Christian Heebøll-Christensen, 2011
This paper compares the financial destabilizing effects of excess liquidity and credit growth, specifically in relation to housing price bubbles and economic booms, using US data from 1987 to 2010. The analysis employs a cointegrated VAR (CVAR) model, focusing on the period leading up to the global financial crisis.The findings suggest that, in line with monetarist theory, there is a stable money supply-demand relationship, but excess liquidity only contributed to financial instability after 2000. Meanwhile, real house prices and leverage were found to follow cycles driven by real credit shocks, supporting post-Keynesian theories on financial instability.The paper highlights that while excess liquidity and credit growth are closely related, credit growth (particularly in the form of deregulated financial innovations) played a significant role in creating a long-run housing bubble, which was further fueled by expansionary monetary policy after the dot-com crash. This ultimately led to the bubble bursting in 2007.The results emphasize that financial instability is more closely linked to credit cycles rather than liquidity alone, supporting the credit view, while also noting the influence of structural changes in financial regulation and innovation
The paper examines the role of excess liquidity vs. credit growth in financial instability.Credit growth, particularly from financial deregulation, was a key driver of housing bubbles.A stable money supply-demand relation was observed, but excess liquidity became destabilizing post-2000.The study supports the credit view of financial instability, highlighting the importance of capital structures and credit cycles.Financial deregulation and innovation were crucial to the formation of long-run housing bubbles.The paper explores the long-term relationships and dynamics between various macroeconomic variables through a Vector Error Correction (VEC) model and a Structural Vector Moving Average (VMA) model. Using the VEC model, cointegration vectors and long-run relations were identified, and then the Structural VMA model was used to analyze the dynamics of the system.The analysis found that real credit shocks consistently had a positive impact on real house prices and GDP in the long run, while liquidity shocks were more dependent on the identification scheme and could be difficult to distinguish from interest rate effects.The results suggested that credit shocks contribute to economic growth and house price increases, supporting the credit view. liquidity shocks have varying effects, depending on assumptions, but were mostly linked to interest rate effects and had less impact on real GDP and house prices.The study also examined how these findings aligned with previous research, noting that some results contradicted earlier studies, such as those by Greiber and Setzer, who found significant liquidity effects, and others like Adalid and Detken, who found credit shocks less influential on house prices.The paper concludes by emphasizing the complexity of distinguishing between the effects of liquidity and credit cycles and suggests that monetary policies play a significant role in shaping economic outcomes, particularly in the aftermath of events like the dot-com crash.
summery of above
Financial instability depends on various factors, such as economic slowdowns, financial reforms, political instability, and overall economic policies. All of these elements are interconnected and contribute to economic instability. One notable example of this is the global financial crisis in the USA, which was largely driven by financial instability. In this case, excessive liquidity in the market played a crucial role. Climate change also playes an important role in economic instability, the critical need for integrating climate risks into financial regulation and emphasizes the significant role of governments in managing the financial consequences of climate change. Without action, climate-related financial instability could severely undermine global economic stability.Commodity markets play a key role in the economies of developing countries. Policymakers must focus on strategies that promote diversification, regional cooperation, and sustainable growth to ensure long-term economic stability.Proactive fiscal and monetary interventions are crucial during economic crises. Public administration helps stabilize economies, but managing long-term debt and inflation is vital to avoid prolonged challenges. Coordinated efforts at both national and EU levels are key to navigating recessions.The need for human capital and its role in stabilizing the economy is very crucial ,ultimately economic stability issue can be resolved with economic reforms and its proper implementation by human capital
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Ali Compaore & Montfort Mlachila & Rasmané Ouedraogo & Sandrine Sourouema, 2020. “The Impact of Conflict and Political Instability on Banking Crises in Developing Countries,” Working Papers halshs-02499068, HAL.
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