Elections
Author – Pratiksha Shete
- Digital Elections – Voting Through Phone
Govind and Brig (2020) shed light on the myriad challenges encountered during the conduct phase of elections in India. They passionately advocate for embracing the transformative power of Information & Communication Technology (ICT) to tackle these hurdles head-on and usher in a new era of efficiency and fairness. Central to their vision is the innovative idea of leveraging mobile phones and the internet to revolutionize the voting experience, making it more accessible, secure, and private for every citizen. Their proposed approach involves equipping voters with specially designed mobile devices that not only serve as a means to cast their ballots but also double up as emergency communication tools, ensuring their safety and well-being. With features like biometric authentication, these devices promise to safeguard the integrity of the electoral process while delivering a host of additional benefits such as streamlining operations, cutting costs, curbing violence and corruption, and maintaining the continuity of governance. In essence, Govind and Brig (2020) advocate for embracing modernization as a means to not only enhance the effectiveness of elections but also uphold the fundamental principles of democracy.
- Introduction to a special issue of India Review : the consequences of the 2019 Indian general election for politics and policy in India
Analyzing the impact of Indian General Elections in 2019
Bilal and Milan (2020), emphasized on a diverse range of perspectives to evaluate the implications of the BJP government’s policies and actions. By analyzing the dynamics of the party system, examining the treatment of minority rights, scrutinizing economic policies, and assessing the federal structure, the contributors aim to offer readers a comprehensive assessment of the transformations witnessed in India’s governance and societal fabric during Modi’s second term. Through rigorous analysis and empirical evidence, the articles in this special issue endeavor to shed light on the complex interplay between politics, policy, and society, providing valuable insights for scholars, policymakers, and the general public alike. Overall, this collection serves as a vital contribution to understanding the trajectory of India’s development and governance in the post-2019 election era under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP.
3. Elections in Non-Democracies.
Examining the dynamics of free fand fair elections in different regions
Egorov and Sonin (2021) delved into the intricate dynamics surrounding elections within various political regimes. They highlight how elections, while often associated with democracy, can take on different forms and meanings in diverse contexts. From outright farces where incumbents secure near-unanimous victories to more subtle attempts at legitimacy through allowing opposition candidates and international observers, the spectrum of electoral practices is vast. Their model centers on the incumbent’s strategic calculus, where fair elections serve as a tool for signaling popularity to the populace. Importantly, they consider how citizens, facing varying degrees of repression and costs associated with protesting, decide whether to participate in protests after casting their votes. They find that regimes with high levels of elite repression tend to eschew fair elections, while those where the cost of protesting for ordinary citizens is prohibitive are more likely to opt for fair electoral processes. By illuminating these dynamics, Egorov and Sonin provide valuable insights into the complex interplay between regime characteristics, electoral practices, and citizen behavior. Their research underscores the multifaceted nature of elections beyond their surface appearance, offering a nuanced understanding of political dynamics in different contexts. Ultimately, their work contributes to broader discussions on governance, democracy, and citizen engagement, enriching our understanding of political systems worldwide.
4. Winning big: The political logic of winning elections with large margins in India.
Unveling the enigma of ‘Winning Big’ in Political Elections
Bajpai and Saez (2022) delved into a fascinating yet often overlooked aspect of electoral politics: the phenomenon of politicians winning elections by significant margins, far beyond what is necessary for victory. Termed “winning big,” this occurrence poses intriguing questions about the allocation of campaign resources and the motivations driving incumbent politicians to campaign vigorously despite seemingly secure positions. Their study, focusing on the Indian political landscape, employs an innovative research design that combines quantitative analysis with in-depth interviews with incumbent Members of Parliament (MPs) from diverse states. By distinguishing “winning big” from merely “safe” seats, they uncover a range of factors contributing to landslide victories, including candidate strategy, party popularity, mobilizers, electoral uncertainty, and party control. Through their meticulous investigation, Bajpai and Saez challenge conventional wisdom by revealing that winning big is not merely a result of campaign overspending in already secure constituencies. Instead, they uncover deeper motivations, such as political parties’ strategic aims to establish an aura of invincibility or individual politicians’ efforts driven by a sense of political vulnerability often underestimated in existing literature on safe seats. Their findings shed light on the complexities of electoral dynamics, offering valuable insights into the strategic calculations and psychological factors influencing politicians’ behavior. By humanizing the research process through in-depth interviews and nuanced analysis, Bajpai and Saez provide a compelling narrative that enriches our understanding of electoral politics not only in India but also in other democratic contexts worldwide.
- Broken Promises: Regime Announcements and Exchange Rates around Elections.
Exchange Rate Dynamics and Government Changes
Garofalo and Streb (2022) delved into the dynamics of exchange rates surrounding changes in government, taking into account the exchange rate regime. We combine classifications from the IMF on de jure exchange rate regimes with those from Reinhart and Rogoff on de facto regimes to better understand whether official announcements align with actual policies. Analyzing monthly data from Latin American democracies, we found no significant exchange rate depreciations leading up to government changes across identified regimes. However, we did observe a gradual overvaluation of real exchange rates in cases where the de jure regime was fixed but de facto policy was flexible. Interestingly, this overvaluation tended to be corrected abruptly after a change in government. They noted a trend of real exchange rate misalignments when announcements did not match actual behavior, particularly with incumbents delaying devaluations until their successors assumed office. While this pattern was common until 1999, it became less prevalent thereafter, suggesting evolving dynamics in exchange rate management.
6. Political dynasties and electoral outcomes in India.
Understanding the Dynastic Premium in Indian Election
Panda and Sitakanta (2022) conducted some fascinating research shedding light on a crucial aspect of Indian electoral politics: political dynasties. You see, in many democracies, including India, these dynasties play a significant role in shaping governance, but until Panda and Sitakanta’s work, we lacked precise estimates of their influence and the factors driving it. Imagine this: Sitakanta and their team delved deep into the data from the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, examining over 8,000 candidates. What they discovered was quite eye-opening. They found that candidates from political dynasties had a notable advantage. These dynastic candidates were a staggering 13% more likely to emerge victorious compared to their non-dynastic counterparts. Moreover, they enjoyed a substantial 18% to 20% boost in their share of the vote. But Sitakanta didn’t stop there. They wanted to understand what fueled this dynastic advantage. Through meticulous analysis, they uncovered several key factors. For instance, the presence of a dynastic incumbent in a constituency significantly increased the likelihood of another dynastic candidate winning. On the flip side, when elections were fiercely competitive, the advantage for dynastic candidates diminished. What’s intriguing is that Panda and Sitakanta also explored the dynamics from the voters’ perspective. They found that factors like voter dissatisfaction and the relative wealth of dynastic candidates influenced voter preferences. Interestingly, in constituencies where there was a dynastic incumbent, voter preference for dynastic candidates decreased. But it wasn’t just about voters. Sitakanta’s research also delved into the supply side—the political parties. They discovered that parties were more inclined to field dynastic candidates, particularly when there was a dynastic incumbent or when the candidate boasted significant wealth.Overall, Panda and Sitakanta’s research provided a comprehensive understanding of the dynamics surrounding political dynasties in Indian elections. By humanizing the data and exploring the motivations behind voters’ and parties’ choices, they painted a vivid picture of how these dynasties shape the political landscape.
7. Elections hinder firms’ access to credit.
Election impact on firm credit access
Leon and Weill (2024) undertook a thorough investigation into how the occurrence of elections impacts firms’ access to credit across a diverse set of 44 developed and developing countries. Their research sheds light on an important yet understudied aspect of the relationship between political events and economic outcomes. Their findings reveal a significant negative effect of elections on firms’ access to credit. Specifically, they observe that both during election years and the periods leading up to elections, firms experience lower levels of credit accessibility. This phenomenon is attributed to the heightened political uncertainty surrounding elections, which tends to deter lenders from extending credit to businesses. One of the key insights from their study is the distinction between the tangible impact of elections on borrower discouragement and their less direct effect on banks’ loan acceptance decisions. While the presence of elections exacerbates borrower hesitancy in seeking credit, it doesn’t necessarily translate into a direct decrease in loan approvals by banks. Moreover, Leon and Weill highlight the nuanced nature of the relationship between elections and credit access, showing that various factors including country-specific characteristics, election dynamics, and firm-level attributes play a role in shaping this relationship. By providing empirical evidence on the interplay between electoral cycles and credit dynamics, Leon and Weill’s research offers valuable insights for policymakers, businesses, and financial institutions. Their findings underscore the importance of considering political factors when analyzing economic outcomes, contributing to a deeper understanding of the complexities inherent in the relationship between politics and finance.
8. Election Cycles and Organizations: How Politics Shapes the Performance of State-owned Enterprises over Time.
Political incentives and State-owned enterprises
Inoue and Carlos (2020) delved into the intricate relationship between elected state officials and the behavior of state-owned enterprises (SOEs), focusing particularly on the context of Brazil’s water sector. Their research offers a dynamic perspective on how political incentives drive the actions of these organizations, shedding light on the complex interplay between politics, economics, and societal factors. Drawing on theoretical insights into the nexus between politicians and firms, the study proposes that elected officials, motivated by the need to secure votes, manipulate SOEs to boost employment levels before elections. Consequently, SOEs exhibit a dual effect in election years: higher employment rates but lower financial performance, reflecting the trade-off between political objectives and economic efficiency. Importantly, Inoue and Carlos highlight that the impact of elections on SOE behavior is not uniform across firms and communities. They find that the relationship between election cycles and SOE employment is more pronounced in economically disadvantaged communities, while SOEs with private investors exhibit a weaker response to political pressures. By analyzing data from Brazil’s water sector, a critical industry managing a fundamental societal resource, the study provides empirical support for these hypotheses. Their findings underscore the political contingency of SOE performance and demonstrate how the interaction between electoral cycles, organizational dynamics, and community characteristics shapes the behavior of firms in state capitalism. Overall, Inoue and Carlos’ research contributes valuable insights into the mechanisms linking political incentives and SOE behavior, offering a deeper understanding of the dynamics at play in the intersection of politics and business. Their study highlights the importance of considering both organizational and community attributes in analyzing the responses of firms to political pressures, enriching scholarly discourse on state-owned enterprises and electoral dynamics.
9. Election by Community Consensus: Effects on Political Selection and Governance.
Evaluating the impact of census elections on Local Governance in India.
Arora and Ashna (2022) delved into the impact of encouraging the selection of local politicians in India through community consensus, as opposed to traditional secret ballot elections. Their research draws on village-level data encompassing candidates, elected officials, government budgets, and workfare employment to shed light on the consequences of this approach. Their findings reveal that incentivizing consensus elections results in the selection of politicians who are more educated but less likely to come from historically marginalized caste backgrounds. Moreover, they observe a tendency for workfare employment programs to be targeted regressively under consensus-elected officials, exacerbating inequalities within communities. Qualitative evidence provided in the study further supports these quantitative findings, indicating that consensus elections are susceptible to capture by local elites. This phenomenon potentially diminishes the need for clientelistic transfers to non-elite members of the community, further entrenching power dynamics within local governance structures. By uncovering these dynamics, Arora and Ashna’s research sheds light on the complexities of local politics in India and the implications of alternative election mechanisms on representation and resource allocation. Their study contributes valuable insights into the challenges of promoting inclusive governance practices while navigating local power dynamics, offering important considerations for policymakers and practitioners seeking to enhance democratic processes at the grassroots level.
10. Information structures and information aggregation in threshold equilibria in elections.
Analyzing Information Aggregation in Multi-state, Multi-signal Elections
Svetlana and Kosterina (2023) delve into the intricate dynamics of information aggregation in elections characterized by multiple states and signals. Their study focuses particularly on threshold equilibria, providing a comprehensive understanding of how information is processed and aggregated in such settings. One of the key contributions of their research is the complete characterization of information aggregation within this framework. They identify necessary and sufficient conditions on the distributions of signals that ensure information aggregation in every sequence of threshold equilibria. Additionally, they highlight simple conditions that suffice for information aggregation in threshold equilibria, even if they are not strictly necessary. Importantly, Svetlana and Kosterina also pinpoint generic conditions that are necessary and sufficient for information to fail to aggregate in any sequence of threshold equilibria. This aspect of their analysis sheds light on the existence of equilibria where information remains fragmented, offering valuable insights into the limitations of certain electoral dynamics. Overall, their research provides a rigorous framework for understanding the dynamics of information aggregation in complex electoral systems, offering important implications for the functioning of democratic processes. By elucidating the conditions under which information is effectively aggregated or remains dispersed, Svetlana and Kosterina’s work contributes to a deeper understanding of the mechanisms driving electoral outcomes and decision-making in multi-signal environments.
Research Summary:
The collection of studies delves into various aspects of electoral dynamics globally. From proposing the modernization of voting methods in India through ICT to analyzing the implications of major elections on governance and policy, each study provides unique insights into the complex interplay between politics, economics, and society. Highlights include examinations of election dynamics across political regimes, motivations behind landslide victories, and the impact of elections on firms’ access to credit. Additionally, studies explore the influence of political incentives on state-owned enterprises, the consequences of consensus elections on local governance, and information aggregation in complex electoral systems. Together, these findings contribute to a deeper understanding of electoral processes worldwide, offering valuable insights for policymakers and practitioners aiming to enhance democratic governance.
References:
Arora, A. (2022). Election by Community Consensus: Effects on Political Selection and Governance. Review of Economics & Statistics, 104(2), 321–335. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00970
Bajpai, R., & Sáez, L. (2022). Winning big: The political logic of winning elections with large margins in India. India Review, 21(1), 21–52. https://doi.org/10.1080/14736489.2021.2018200
Baloch, B., & Vaishnav, M. (2020). Introduction to a special issue of India Review: the consequences of the 2019 Indian general election for politics and policy in India. India Review, 19(2), 109–116. https://doi.org/10.1080/14736489.2020.1744993
Egorov, G., & Sonin, K. (2021). Elections in Non-Democracies. Economic Journal, 131(636), 1682–1716. https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueaa123
Garofalo, P., & Streb, J. M. (2022). Broken Promises: Regime Announcements and Exchange Rates around Elections. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1–32.
Govind, B. E. (2020). Digital Elections – Voting Through Phone. ANWESH: International Journal of Management & Information Technology, 5(1), 1–7.
Inoue, C. (2020). Election Cycles and Organizations: How Politics Shapes the Performance of State-owned Enterprises over Time. Administrative Science Quarterly, 65(3), 677–709. https://doi.org/10.1177/0001839219869913
Klingelhöfer, J. (2021). Competitive elections, incumbency advantage, and accountability. Economic Theory, 71(4), 1397–1428. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00199-021-01370-9
Kosterina, S. (2023). Information structures and information aggregation in threshold equilibria in elections. Economic Theory, 75(2), 493–522. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00199-022-01412-w
Léon, F., & Weill, L. (2024). Elections hinder firms’ access to credit. Economics of Transition & Institutional Change, 32(1), 73–107. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecot.12377