RBI AND ITS POLICIES
Author : Anchal Sharma
New Delhi: In twin relief for India’s economy, retail inflation eased more than expected to a 12-month low in December while industrial growth swung to a five-month high in November from a contraction in the preceding month, separate data releases on Monday showed.
The positive data mix raises the odds that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may pivot its monetary policy from fighting inflation to supporting growth amid a worsening global eco- nomic outlook.
Retail inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), eased to 5.72% in December from 5.88% in the preceding month, within the RBI‘s 2-6% target band, as lower vegetable prices eased food inflation.
The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) rebounded to 7.1% growth in November from a 4.2% contraction in October.
The World Bank said on Wednesday that the global economy is “perilously close to falling into recession”. Retail inflation is now within the RBI‘s target rate band for the second month running. But despite the rebound in November, economists expect the industrial sector to struggle in the face of higher interest rates and an adverse global environment.
“Taking into account today’s lower-than-expected CPI inflation print, and the muted average IIP growth of 1.3% during OctoberNovember 2022, we anticipate that the MPC (monetary policy committee) may choose to pause in February 2023,” said Aditi Nayar, chief economist, ICRA.
The next monetary policy announcement is on February 8 after the budget for FY24 is presented on February 1. “From the policy perspective, we believe that RBI‘s move at the February MPC meeting will be a close call with core CPI inflation remaining sticky,” said Rajani Sinha, chief economist, Care Ratings.
India Ratings’ principal economist Sunil Sinha expects a quarter percentage point rise in the policy rate at the February review. The RBI raised interest rates by 35 basis points (bps) to 6.25% on December 7 following three successive 50 bps increases to tame inflation. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.
Industry wants the RBI to pause rate increases. “We are hoping that there will not be any further increase in policy repo rate as this will have impact on demand creation and economic growth in the country,” said Saket Dalmia, president, PHDCCI.
Bennett, Coleman & Company Limited The Economic Times (Online); New Delhi Jan 13, 2023 Business And Economics
India’s central bank maintained its key policy rate to support the country’s economic recovery, as the Russia-Ukraine war has raised uncertainty over the global growth outlook.
Reserve Bank of India Gov. Shaktikanta Das said Friday that the monetary-policy committee decided to keep its policy repo rate unchanged at 4.00% and its reverse repo rate at 3.35%.
All five economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had expected the central bank to leave its repo rate unchanged.
Mr. Das said the war between Russia and Ukraine, both important commodity producers, has disrupted supply chains and boosted inflationary pressure while casting a shadow over the global economy.
He said the central bank would remain accommodative to support a recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic while focusing on the withdrawal of accommodation to ensure that inflation stays within its target.
Mr. Das said the RBI plans to gradually withdraw excess liquidity over a multiyear time frame starting this year, as extraordinary liquidity measures in response to the pandemic has left a liquidity overhang. He said the central bank is committed to ensure the availability of adequate liquidity.
The central bank forecasts the economy to grow 7.2% in the fiscal year that started in April, down from its previous view of 7.8% growth, Mr. Das said.
The RBI expects the country’s inflation at 5.7% this fiscal year, up from its previous forecast of a 4.5% rise, he said.
India’s consumer-price index in February rose 6.1% from a year earlier, compared with the central bank’s inflation target range of 2%-6%.
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“RBI has cut the repo rate by 50bps to 6.75% in the fourth bi-monthly monetary policy. The cash reserve ratio, however, has been left unchanged at 4%.””RBI had said that it will be tracking inflation levels, monsoon and the Federal Reserve’s policy stance to decide its stance for a policy rate cut. “”According to the RBI monetary policy statement, here’s why the central bank went for a 50bps rate cut on Tuesday:””- While global growth has moderated since the August policy, especially in emerging markets, global trade has deteriorated, downside risks have increased, however, the central bank has said that “In India, a tentative economic growth is underway, but is still far from robust.”””-
Inflation has dropped to a nine-month low, as projected. Wholesale inflation dropped to a new all-time low of -4.95% from the earlier historic low of -4.05%. Retail inflation too fell to a new low of 3.66% from the earlier 3.78%. CPI inflation excluding food and fuel eased in August for the second consecutive month, primarily due to the decline in petrol and diesel prices pulling down inflation in transportation. The RBI said that despite a deficit in the monsoons, food inflation pressures have been contained by various actions taken by the government to manage supply. The disinflation has been broad-based and inflation excluding food and fuel has also come off its recent peak in June. “”- Area under sowing has expended modestly from a year ago period, the central bank has said.
The RBi has said that first advance estimates indicate that food grain production is expected to be higher than last year, reflecting actions taken to contain the adverse effects of rain deficiency through timely advisories and regular monitoring of seed and fertiliser availability. “”- In the last FOMC meet, the US Federal Reserve yet again postponed its decision to normalise the policy regime to later this year. When the US Fed hikes rates (if at all) it will be the first time that the Fed will be hiking rates in about a year, a stance that is being keenly watched by central banks around the world. RBi governor Raghuram Rajan in the monetary policy press conference on Tuesday said that “the US Fed’s stance is one of the factors considered for the monetary policy.”””- While lending rates have only falled by about 30bps which is only a fraction of the 75bps that has been cut in this year alone. However, RBI has said that bank deposit rates have been reduced significantly, suggesting that a further transmission is possible.
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India’s central bank raised its policy rate on Wednesday in a bid to tame inflation.
Reserve Bank of India Gov. Shaktikanta Das said that the RBI‘s monetary-policy committee had decided to increase its policy repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.50%, effective immediately.
All seven economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal projected that the Indian central bank would raise the policy rate by a quarter of a percentage point.
Mr. Das said the committee also decided to remain focused on the withdrawal of accommodation to ensure inflation remains within the target going forward.
The central bank projects annual inflation of 6.5% for the fiscal year ending in March, down from its previous forecast of 6.7%, and a 5.3% inflation for the next fiscal year, Mr. Das said.
The central bank governor said the Indian economy remained resilient and the global economic outlook didn’t look as grim now as a few months ago.
Mr. Das said the Indian economy is expected to grow 6.4% next fiscal year following a projected 7% expansion this fiscal year.
Some economists have said that Wednesday’s rate increase would mark the end of the RBI‘s current tightening cycle as inflation has eased and domestic demand has shown signs of softening.
India’s consumer-price index rose 5.7% in December from a year earlier following a 5.9% increase in November. That compared with the central bank’s inflation target range of 2% to 6%.
After years of policy stimulus, central banks around the world have been raising rates lately to contain a surge in inflation sparked by the Russia-Ukraine war and the recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic.
The RBI has been tightening policy settings since it increased its policy rate by 40 basis points from 4.00% at an off-cycle meeting in May, its first rate increase in nearly four years.
(Narioka, Kosaku) WSJ Pro. Central Banking; New York Feb 8, 2023Dow Jones & Company Inc .New York United States, New York Business And Economics–Banking And Finance
India’s central bank might signal the beginning of a benign interest rate cycle by changing its policy stance to ‘neutral’ at this week’s meeting, although budget incentives seeking to boost consumption may prompt the panel members setting the cost of funds to delay the cuts until the next review. About a third of the 25 participants in the exclusive ET survey on interest rates believe the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) could slash rates by 25 basis points on February 7 itself, but the rest of the participants are betting that Mint Road experts would hit the ‘pause’ button this time.
“By the second quarter, the MPC will have greater clarity on food inflation, crude oil prices and the state of the global economy to better assess the quantum of rate cuts,” said Anubhuti Sahay, head, South Asia, Economics Research, Standard Chartered Bank.
An ‘accommodative’ stance points at rate cuts while ‘neutral’ entails possibilities of both increases and decreases. In its December policy, the RBI hinted at a change in its stance to ‘neutral’ from ‘calibrated tightening’. Doing so would give the central bank the flexibility to act on incoming data, according to Axis Bank chief economist Saugata Bhattacharya, who believes Mint Road would defer an action on rates until the next conclave.
“A rate cut in next week’s monetary policy review might be premature. Risks, both global and domestic, are evenly balanced,” Bhattacharya said.
In the interim budget, the government sought to boost rural spending and offered tax rebates. In FY19, the government would end with a fiscal deficit of 3.4% instead of 3.3% estimated earlier.
“The RBI is likely to factor in the modest fiscal slippage,” said Radhika Rao, economist with DBS Bank. “We await the central bank’s commentary to gauge its assessment of domestic and external risks… The pro-consumption bias in the FY20 budget might be seen as a lagged risk to the core inflation outlook.”
However, the proponents of immediate rate cuts cite sustained lower oil prices and excess food output, factors that have caused headline inflation to undershoot expectations.
BofA-ML (trader’s call) and HDFC Bank are among the eight survey participants that expect the RBI to decrease the repo, or the rate at which banks borrow short-term money from the central bank, by at least 25 basis points. The repo is now at 6.50%.
“All three parameters, including inflation, global crude oil prices and GDP growth, are benign, which makes a case for a quarter percentage point rate cut at least,” said Jayesh Mehta, MD and country treasurer of Bank of America ML. “Food inflation is expected to remain low due to excess production. This could be a prudent approach to cut the rate, pushing up growth at this juncture.”Since October last year, global crude oil prices have fallen 28%, slashing New Delhi’s import bills.
Saikat Das1 The Economic Times (Online); New Delhi Feb 4, 2019 Bennett, Coleman & Company LimitedNew DelhiIndia, New Delhi Business And Economics.
Mumbai: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may delay the start of a rate tightening cycle as mobility and business-hour curbs threaten broader economic growth. But the central bank might deploy liquidity management tools, perhaps as early as February, to mark the beginning of the journey toward policy normalisation.
Strong correlation between economic activity and public mobility indicators suggests that significant and protracted curbs would hit economic activity in Q4 FY22. HDFC Bank, for instance, has said there could be downside risks to its growth forecast of 6.1% for Q4 by 20-30 basis points.
One basis point is 0.01%. “The return of uncertainty around growth and inflation due to the spread of the new variant might delay the RBI‘s decision to hike the reverse repo rate in February 2022 as well,” said Abheek Barua, chief economist at HDFC Bank.
Before the Omicron variant triggered major curbs, odds had shortened on Mint Road raising the re- verse repo rate, or the rate at which banks park surplus cash with the RBI, in February itself.
“The restrictions could derail the recovery in contact-intensive services in Q1, but global experience suggests a smaller impact than previous waves and a swift growth rebound once cases peak,” said Sonal Varma, chief India economist at Nomura.
In its latest financial stability report, the RBI flagged concerns on the risks of rising infections.”More recent high-frequency indicators of economic activity suggest some loss of momentum in the third quarter of 2021-22,” said the latest financial stability report. “The pace of recovery remains uneven across sectors, inflation formation is being subjected to repetitive supply shocks and the outlook is overcast with global risks. Omicron haunts near-term prospects.”
To be sure, a decision on raising the cost of money may well be delayed.
“If risks surrounding the new Omicron variant remain, adding to near-term uncertainty, we think the MPC (monetary policy committee) members could remain in a wait-and-see mode in the February policy meeting and could delay policy normalisation to the April policy meeting,” said Tanvee Gupta Jain, economist at UBS Securities.
Inflation risks remain. Consumer inflation is estimated to reach the upper end of the 2-to-6% band in the current quarter.
India’s key policy rates — the benchmark repo rate at which it lends to banks and the reverse repo rates — are unchanged at 4% and 3.35%, respectively, since May 2020. The monetary policy stance too is “accomodative”.
The RBI could, however, harness other liquidity tools to indicate its initiatives toward policy normalisation. Daily system liquidity surplus reduced to `7.6 lakh crore at the end of December, compared with `9.6 lakh crore at the beginning of the month.
“RBI‘s liquidity normalisation/ adjustment will continue while rate hike expectations could moderate (reverse repo rate hike in February is now uncertain) as Omicron risk looms,” Barua said.
Nayak, Gayathri The Economic Times (Online); New Delhi Jan 5, 2022 Bennett, Coleman & Company Limited India, New Delhi Business And Economics
Mumbai: Reserve Bank of India governor Shaktikanta Das said that the economy would have suffered had the central bank tightened monetary policy earlier than it did. The governor said that India’s monetary policy framework provides flexibility to ensure that economic resilience and financial stability with a clear objective that when situation stabilises inflation will be brought within target.
Das explained the rationale behind the central bank’s policy measures in his speech at a banking conclave organised by Ficci and the Indian Banks’ Association. The speech comes a day ahead of the monetary policy committee meeting to discuss a communication to the government on why the inflation target of 4% could not be maintained.
Das said that the RBI has eased policy as part of pandemic measures and announced measures to tighten monetary supply after the Ukrai- ne war started in April. He said that while the inflation target was missed, it was important to see what the alternative would have been. “It (tightening earlier) would have been very costly for the economy. It would have been very costly for the citizens of this country. We would have paid a high cost,” he said.
The governor said that while the RBI did not have the freedom to make public the contents of the letter to the government, it would be a matter of time before the contents are disclosed as the MPC framework is built on transparency.
“Bank of England has been writing this letter every month for the last one year. Other central banks write similar letters. However, our MPC framework is quite recent and was instituted only in 2016,”said Das. The governor compared the inflation targeting exercise with the challenge faced by Arjuna in the Mahabharata when he had to shoot an arrow at the eye of a revolving fish by looking at its reflection in the water.
Das said that liquidity situation would ease as cash leakages from the system due to festivals would return and the government spending picks up. He said capital outflows that were being seen were a reflection of the liquidity.
Bennett, Coleman & Company Limited The Times of India (Online); New Delhi Nov 3, 2022 India, New Delhi General Interest Periodicals–India
Kolkata: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is working with the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER) to develop a food inflation projection framework as the central bank looks to depend more on a consultative approach to collect first-hand data and improve policy responses.
“Many of the backward-looking models, which run on past data, may fall short of providing useful information and estimates for policy. The department (economic and policy research) must further strengthen its consultative approach to collect first-hand information directly from the stakeholders,” RBI governor Shaktikanta Das said.
He suggested consultative approaches in other areas of research as well.
“There is increasing use of Big Data and data generated by private sources for policy research. We cannot escape the fact that data is the new oil. The department may have to look at all such data, being mind- ful of ways to deal with misleading and noisy analysis that such data may at times throw up,” he said on Saturday at its annual research conference in Hyderabad.
He said that the pandemic forced the researchers to explore and harness the power of Big Data, and strengthen direct feedback mechanisms while working from home.
The department in the next month would repeat a nationwide survey with farmers, retailers and wholesalers to understand the changes brought out by the pandemic.
Talking about food and other critical inputs, Das highlighted aneed to explore different sources in the backdrop of the war in Europe which led to a severe food crisis and an energy crisis worldwide.
“A new risk emerged in the form of fragmentation of the global economy driven by fast changing geopolitical considerations, that brought to the fore the need for reducing dependence on any single source for critical supplies,” he said.
Bennett, Coleman & Company Limited The Economic Times (Online); New Delhi Nov 20, 2022 India, New Delhi Business And Economics
Mumbai: The Reserve Bank of India will put in place a comprehensive risk-based framework to provide greater assurance about the accuracy and integrity of financial benchmarks, including those for government bond valuation.
The framework will cover the administration of all benchmarks related to foreign exchange, interest rates, money markets and government securities, the RBI said in its statement on developmental and regulatory policies.
Benchmarks for rates on certificate of deposits, repo rates, and FX Options Volatility Matrix as well as other benchmarks on government securities, will be covered. “Revised directions which are being issued separately, envisage regulatory prescriptions for benchmark administrators, encompassing, inter alia, governance and oversight arrangements, conflict of interest, controls, and transparency,” the central bank said.
In June 2019, the RBI issued a regulatory framework on the administration of significant benchmarks. That framework was for benchmark administrators in financial markets regulated by the RBI and covered the dollar-rupee reference rate, the overnight MIBOR (Mumbai Interbank Outright Rate) and valuations of government securities administered by the Financial Benchmarks India Private Limited (FBIL). Publication title
Bennett, Coleman & Company Limited The Economic Times (Online); New Delhi Aug 11, 2023 India, New Delhi Business And Economics
New Delhi [India], August 7 (ANI): The Reserve Bank of India has maintained consistency in the recent monetary policy statement by focusing on the “withdrawal of accommodation” as its stance to contain inflation, said industry body FICCI.
“The Central Bank has delivered the third consecutive increase in the policy rate today – increasing the benchmark repo rate by a total of 140 bps since May this year. Inflation has been over the comfort range of the Central Bank, however, the recent moderation in global commodity prices should hopefully offer some respite going ahead,” Sanjiv Mehta, President, FICCI said in a statement hours after RBI‘s monetary policy statement.
The medium-term growth drivers for India are very much intact and recovery is expected to find firmer ground by the latter part of this financial year, Mehta said.
“We further hope as inflation ebbs, RBI will dynamically manage its monetary policy stance and continue to support growth impulses in the economy,” added Mehta.
For the record, the monetary policy committee of the Reserve Bank of India has unanimously decided to raise the repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.40 per cent in order to contain the persistently high inflation. Today’s hike takes the repo rate above pre-pandemic levels of 5.15 per cent. The three-day monetary policy committee meeting commenced on Wednesday.
Raising interest typically suppresses demand in the economy, thereby helping inflation to decline.
In line with the global trend of monetary policy tightening to cool off inflation, the RBI has so far hiked the key repo rates — the rate at which the central bank of a country lends money to commercial banks — by 140 basis points.
The MPC reiterated that retail inflation is projected to remain above the upper tolerance level of 6 per cent through the first three quarters of 2022-23.
Inflation projections are retained at 6.7 per cent in 2022-23, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said while announcing the outcomes of the monetary policy.
In India, retail inflation has been over the Reserve Bank of India’s upper tolerance band of 6 per cent for the sixth consecutive month in a row in June. Retail inflation was at 7.01 per cent in June.
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CONCULSION
RBI plays a crucial role in maintaining monetary stability in India. It regulates the money supply, controls inflation, maintains exchange rate stability, and supervises the banking sector.To improve its effectiveness, RBI needs to strengthen its communication channels, enhance transparency, improve accountability, and increase cooperation with other institutions. By implementing these measures, RBI can continue to fulfill its mandate of maintaining monetary stability in India. All the objectives of monetary policy, i. e., exchange stability, price stability, full employment, economic growth, etc., are important and have their relative merits and demerits; None of these objectives is completely undesirable and should be abandoned.
Governments utilise fiscal policy in order to make an impact on the level of aggregate demand within the economy, so that specific economic goals such as price stability, economic growth, and full employment are achieved.
Central government implement different policies for the benefit for people and to grow economy of the country.
The monetary policy committee decided unanimously to keep the policy repo rate unchanged at 6.50 per cent. Consequently, the standing deposit facility (SDF) rate remains at 6.25 per cent and the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate at 6.75 per cent,” said RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das.
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DNA : Daily News & Analysis ; Mumbai Sep 30, 2015BUSINESS & ECONOMY.
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