Unemployment
Author: Vivek Sanap
MMS Roll no: 114
Literature review
Estimating natural rates of unemployment
Brandyn Bok and Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau says The U.S. unemployment rate in March 2022 was 3.6%, near its pre-pandemic 50-year low of 3.5% recorded in February 2020. Despite these similarly low levels, the economic environment now is very different than before the pandemic. The low unemployment at the end of the expansion following the Great Recession coincided with a period of very low inflation: personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price inflation hovered around 1.5% for much of 2019, below the Federal Reserve’s 2% average inflation goal. By contrast, recent low unemployment is associated with much higher inflation: in recent months, PCE inflation has exceeded 5%.
What prolongs youth unemployment in The Gambia?
Masanneh Landing Ceesay and Veronica Kakengi says The general profile of unemployed youth Shows that unemployment is a major challenge in The Gambia’s labour market. Of the unemployed Youths, majority are found to experience long term unemployment while the remaining proportion Experience short spell of unemployment. Logistic regression is applied to analyse the effect of Education attainment, sex, area of residence, marital status as well as differently able status on Unemployment duratio unemployment duration. This specific study focused on analysing unemployment duration among youths in The Gambia. Empirical analysis is applied and by using the logit model, unemployment duration which is binary Is applied as an explained variable while area of residence, sex, education attainment, marital status Along with differently able status are used as explanatory variables.
Duration of educated unemployment
Dody Setyadi, Yuli Sudarso,M Sugiyanta says The age, gender, Income during the search for employment, junior level of education, higher level of education and agricultural sector GRDP variables have a positive and significantinfluence on the duration of job search. On the other hand, services sector GRDP, Senior High School level of education and status as head of household have a negative and significant influence on job search duration.
A Congestion Theory of Unemploymen Fluctuations
Yusuf Mercan, Benjamin Schoefer, Petr Sedlacek says In recessions, unemployment increases despite the—perhaps counterintuitive—fact that the Number of unemployed workers finding jobs expands. On net, unemployment rises only because Even more workers lose their jobs. We propose a theory of unemployment fluctuations resting on This countercyclicality of gross flows from unemployment into employment. In recessions, the Abundance of new hires “congests” the jobs the unemployed fill, diminishes their marginal product And discourages further job creation
Assessing the Risk of Extreme Unemployment Outcomes
By Thomas R. Cook and Taeyoung Doh says Although the unemployment rate is at a historically low level, many policymakers are nevertheless watching projections for the future unemployment rate closely to evaluate the risk of extreme outcomes. We assess the probabilities of extreme outcomes in the near and medium term and find that the risk of unexpectedly high unemployment three years in the future has declined from its Great Recession peak and remained low over the past three years.
Temporary Layoffs and Unemployment in the Pandemic
Erin Wolcott, Mitchell G. Ochse, Marianna Kudlyak, and Noah A. Kouchekinia says Tremendous uncertainty surrounds unemployment projections over the next few years (Petrosky-Nadeau and Valletta 2020). The spike in U.S. unemployment in March and April was dominated by an unprecedented increase in temporary layoffs. Typically, unemployment from temporary layoffs declines.
The Inexorable Recoveries of US Unemployment
Robert E. Hall says We have developed a parsimonious statistical model of the behavior of unemployment in cyclical recoveries. In economies subject to occasional major negative shocks, it nexorable downward glide at a low but reliable proportional rate during quiescent times.That rate is around 0.1 log points per year. The model describes: first, occasional sharpupward movements in unemployment in times of economic crisis, and second, an inexorabledownward glide at a low but reliable proportional rate at all other times.
The Lock-in Effects of Part-time Unemployment Benefits
H´el`ene Benghalem, Pierre Cahuc, Pierre Villedieu says Our paper shows that the transmission of information about part-time unemployment ben-efits can be used to evaluate the impact of the marginal tax rate on earnings from workwhile on claim. Our main finding is that drops in the marginal tax rate in the neighbor-hood of its current level induce significant lock-in effects into compensated unemployment.
Residential Mobility and Unemployment in the UK
Monica Langella, Alan Manning says This paper investigates the impact of economic conditions on residential mobility in the UK, focusing on developing an empirical method that can handle a large number of areas, allowing greater insight than can be obtained when using a higher level of geographical aggregation such as regions. Our main result is that most residential moves are very local and that the local unemployment Rate negatively affects inflows and positively affects outflows, thus causing population to move Away from areas of high unemployment and towards areas of lower unemployment.
Unemployment in the SADC Region
Motsatsi, Johane Moilwa says This study estimates the determinants of unemployment in the SADC region using panel data from 2000 to 2016. The main objective was to find economic indicators that have a reducing impact on unemployment. The obtained results indicate that the estimated coefficient of unemployment rate with respect to real GDP, foreign direct investment, consumer price index, credit to the private sector, interest rate and labour force participation rate are negative, while that with respect to trade openness, labour productivity and population are positive.
Conclusion
The general profile of unemployed youth shows that the unemployment is a major challenge. In unemployed people’s there are experience as well as freshers youths they don’t get any work. Fact that number of unemployed person increases day to day. There is major impact of economic conditions happen on employment. Most residential moves are very local and that the local unemployment rate negatively affect inflow and positively affect outflow thus causing population move from area of high unemployment and towards area of low unemployment. Now the unemployment from temporary layoff decrease.
Reference
Crump, Richard K., Christopher J. Nekarda, and Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau. 2020. “Unemployment Rate Benchmarks.”
Federal Reserve Board, Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-72.
https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2020.072
DeLong, J. Bradford, and Lawrence H. Summers. 1988. “How Does Macroeconomic Policy Affect Output?” Brookings
Papers on Economic Activity 1988(2), pp. 433–480.
AfDB, OECD, UNDP and UNECA (2012). Promoting Youth Employment. African Economic Outlook, www.africaneconomicoutlook.org[Accessed on 14 July 2016]
Aarson, D., Mazumder, B., & Schechter, S. (2010). What is behind the rise in long-term Unemployment?
Andolfatto, D. (2006). Search models of unemployment. In Forthcoming in the New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics(2nd ed.)
Adrian, Tobias, Nina Boyarchenko, and Domenico Giannone. 2019. “Vulnerable Growth.” American Economic Review, vol. 109, no. 4, pp. 1263–89.
Clarida, Richard H. 2019. “Sustaining Maximum Employment and Price Stability.” Speech at the Economic Club of New York, New York, NY, May 30.
Barrero, Jose Maria, Nick Bloom, and Steven J. Davis. 2020. “COVID-19 Is Also a Reallocation Shock.” Becker Friedman Institute Working Paper 2020-59
Box, George E.P. and David R. Cox, “An Analysis of Transformations,” Journal of theRStatistical Society: Series B (Methodological), 1964, 26 (2), 211–243
Alberto Abadie, Matthew M Chingos, and Martin R West. Endogenous stratification in Randomized experiments. Review of Economics and Statistics, 100(4):567–580, 2018.
Aitkin, M. and Francis, B. (1992). “Fitting the multinomial logit model with continuous Covariates in GLIM”, Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, vol. 14, no. 1, pp. 89-97
Al-Habees, M. A., and Rumman, M. A. (2012). “The Relationship Between Unemployment and Economic Growth in Jordan and Some Arab Countries”. World Applied Sciences Journal, 18 (5), 673-680.