LIFE EXPECTANCY IN WORLD

By- Akanksha Shukla under the able guidance of Dr. JK Sachdeva

The life expectancy slowdown:

Life expectancy is increasing – but the rate at which it is doing so in some countries is stalling. The Office for National Statistics compared changes to average life expectancies in 20 countries across the world, between 2005-10 and 2011-16.The data shows that the UK has experienced one of the steepest slowdowns to both male and female life expectancies during that time.
In the years 2005-10, male life expectancy in the UK increased by 17 weeks a year, while female life expectancy increased by 13 weeks annually. These improvements are largely thanks to progress in treating infectious diseases, health improvements in the general population, advances in medical care such as heart disease treatments and behavioural changes such as fewer people smoking.

Life expectancy increasing in America:

According to the latest figures, average life expectancy in the United States is 77.6 years, compared with 75.4 in 1990, according to the publication. Furthermore, old age begets older age. Today, a 65-year-old American man can expect to live to 81.6; if he reaches the age of 85, he can expect to live to see 90. Women still outlive men, although the gap is closing, but the same demographic pattern holds. Old age adds to life expectancy.
However, compared with people in other countries, Americans are not doing so well. American males and females rank 12th and 15th, respectively, in life expectancy at age 65.

Length of a lifetime: Should we be worried about the decline in life expectancy?

Most babies born in 1900 didn’t live to see 50, but most Americans born this year will reach the upper end of the 70s, and a record number of us will hit the century mark.
Government data, however, is raining on the longevity parade. Life expectancy in America declined by a fraction in 2015, worrying some health officials who fear the change may mark the beginning of an ominous trend.
For all Americans, the mortality rate went from 724.6 per 100,000 people to 733.1 per 100,000. But physical health wasn’t the only reason for the decline; mental health figures into it, too. “Diseases of despair” – such as alcoholism and drug abuse – are on the rise, and helped contribute to a 2.6 percent increase in suicide in 2015. One in six Americans took a drug for mental health in 2013.

Life Expectancy; Massachusetts life expectancy higher than national average:

Life expectancy in Massachusetts is 78.4 years, a year longer than the U.S. average, according to a report by the state Department of Public Health, which also found the death rate in Massachusetts is 3% below the national average.
A woman in Massachusetts could expect to live to 81, while a man’s life expectancy was 76. Heart disease and cancer remained the most prevalent causes of death in the state and accounted for about half of all deaths in 2002, the latest year for which figures were available.
However, there was a dramatic increase in the rate of deaths from influenza and pneumonia, rising 16% over the previous year. Officials say that correlates with national patterns of the prevalence and severity of the illnesses.

The life expectancy slowdown: Life expectancy is increasing – but the rate at which it is doing so in some countries is stalling

Improvements to the UK’s life expectancy are stalling, new figures have revealed. The Office for National Statistics compared changes to average life expectancies in 20 countries across the world, between 2005-10 and 2011-16. The data shows that the UK has experienced one of the steepest slowdowns to both male and female life expectancies during that time.
In the years 2005-10, male life expectancy in the UK increased by 17 weeks a year, while female life expectancy increased by 13 weeks annually. These improvements are largely thanks to progress in treating infectious diseases, health improvements in the general population, advances in medical care such as heart disease treatments and behavioural changes such as fewer people smoking.

Comparing life expectancy and health-adjusted life expectancy by body mass index category in adult Canadians: a descriptive study:

At age 20, for both sexes, LE is significantly lower in the underweight and obesity class 2+ categories, but significantly higher in the overweight category when compared to normal weight (obesity class 1 was nonsignificant).
Although being in the overweight category for adults may be associated with a gain in life expectancy as compared to normal weight adults, overweight individuals also experience a higher proportion of these years of life in poorer health. Due to the descriptive nature of this study, further research is needed to explore the causal mechanisms which explain these results, including the important differences we observed between sexes and within obesity subcategories.

A Potential Decline in Life Expectancy in the United States in the 21st Century:

Unless effective population-level interventions to reduce obesity are developed, the steady rise in life expectancy observed in the modern era may soon come to an end and the youth of today may, on average, live less healthy and possibly even shorter lives than their parents. The health and life expectancy of minority populations may be hit hardest by obesity, because within these subgroups, access to health care is limited and childhood and adult obesity has increased the fastest.67 In fact, if the negative effect of obesity on life expectancy continues to worsen, and current trends in prevalence suggest it will, then gains in health and longevity that have taken decades to achieve may be quickly reversed. The optimism of scientists and of policymaking bodies about the future course of life expectancy should be tempered by a realistic acknowledgment that major threats to the health and longevity of younger generations today are already visible.

Longevity in Slovenia: Past and potential gains in life expectancy by age and causes of death:

In developed countries, a major outcome of fertility decline and increased longevity is population ageing that holds important implications for labour markets, social security, healthcare systems, and related developmental strategies. Currently, however, many countries are undergoing a different demographic transition.
The results presented in this paper identify which causes of death- and age-related improvements in mortality produce the highest potential gains in e0 , thereby indicating certain priority areas for Slovenia. Identifying the best policy actions, however, is beyond this paper’s scope, even though it clearly shows challenging and unavoidable policy responses are required to prevent negative increased longevity impacts on economic sustainability.

Estimation of Mortality Rates, Life Expectancy, and Life Potential of Illegal Drug Users:

Premature mortality is a very important consequence of the use of illegal drugs usually estimated within the social costs studies. It is often expressed with the number of lives lost by illegal drug users and the number of years of their life lost in a certain period. To underline the negative effect of illegal drug use on premature user mortality, it is proposed to estimate mortality rates for illegal drug users and to compare them to estimated mortality rates of drug nonusers.
On this basis, under certain assumptions, life table parameters, including life expectancy at the age x, for illegal drug users and nonusers can be estimated, followed by estimates of life potential, understood as the number of years a population partly composed of illegal drug users or a population of nonusers is expected to live.

Life Expectancy and Years of Potential Life Lost:

Some research has suggested that clinicians’ bedside estimates of life expectancy may explain the “treatment-risk” paradox, whereby patients who appear to have high short-term mortality risks are less likely to receive clinically indicated therapies (1). Because the prevention of premature mortality is considered a worthwhile public health objective, alternative measures of disease burden have been developed. The authors used data from the Cardiovascular Cooperative Project, a large nationwide prospective cohort study of 146,743 elderly Medicare patients hospitalized across the United Sates from 1994 to 1995, with follow-up conducted through linkage to administrative databases. Because approximately 10% of patients had not died during the follow-up period, it was necessary to use statistical methods to extrapolate survival curves beyond the 17 years of follow-up that were available.

Conclusion:

An important point to bear in mind when interpreting life expectancy estimates is that very few people will die at precisely the age indicated by life expectancy, even if mortality patterns stay constant.
For example, very few of the infants born in South Africa in 2009 will die at 52.2 years of age, as per the figures in the map above. Most will die much earlier or much later, since the risk of death is not uniform across the lifetime. Life expectancy is the average.

References:

 Aru, Debora.Hull Daily Mail; Hull (UK), 19 Dec 2018
 Physician Law Weekly; Atlanta [Atlanta]26 July 2006
 Graham, Jennifer.Deseret News; Salt Lake City, Utah [Salt Lake City, Utah] 16 Aug 2017.
 Respiratory Therapeutics Week; Atlanta [Atlanta] 12 July 2004
 Aru, Debora.Nottingham Evening Post (2018): “The life expectancy slowdown “Nottingham (UK) [Nottingham (UK)]19 Dec 2018
 Steensma, Colin; Loukine, Lidia; Orpana, Heather; Lo, Ernest; Choi, Bernard 2013: “Comparing life expectancy and health-adjusted life expectancy by body mass index category in adult Canadians: a descriptive study” in Population Health Metrics; London Vol. 11, 2013
 Olshansky, S Jay, PhD; Passaro, Douglas J, MD; Hershow, Ronald C, MD; Layden, Jennifer, MPH; Carnes, Bruce A, PhD (2005): “A Potential Decline in Life Expectancy in the United States in the 21st Century” in The New England Journal of Medicine; Boston Vol. 352, Iss. 11, Mar 17, 2005
 Dolinar, Aleša Lotrič; Bonča, Petra Došenović; Sambt, Jože.Zdravstveno Varstvo(2017): Longevity in Slovenia” in Journal Ljubljana Vol. 56, Iss. 2, 2017
 Mielecka-Kubień, Zofia J.(2018): “Estimation of Mortality Rates, Life Expectancy, and Life Potential of Illegal Drug Users “ in Journal of Drug Issues; Thousand Oaks Vol. 48, Iss. 2, Apr 2018
 Tu, Jack V. (2015): “Life Expectancy and Years of Potential Life Lost” in Journal of the American College of Cardiology; New York Vol. 66, Iss. 6, Aug 11, 2015