Name- KIRTAYK HARSH PRASAD
Roll No.- 21
ITM Executive MBA Batch 11
Introduction: Kwality Ltd. (Kwality) was incorporated in 1992 as Kwality Dairy (India) Ltd. The company was set up as a backward integration unit of Kwality Ice Creams India Ltd and was acquired by Dhingra Family in 2002. Kwality is one of the fastest growing private sector dairy companies with a new range of innovative products and enjoys a large presence in Northern India
Objective:
To understand the regression relationship between average weekly returns of Nifty 50 and Kwality Ltd. (Kwality).

Research Methodology:
The closing price data of Nifty50 and Kwality Ltd. (Kwality) was taken from www.nseindia.com (National Stock Exchange) for the time period 1st Feb 2018 to 31st Jan 2019.
From the available data, the closing rates of all the Fridays in the year was sorted to find out weekly returns for both Nifty as well as Kwality Ltd. (Kwality). Then the weekly returns was calculated for both by using formula –
Weekly Return =(W2-W1)/(W1*100)
where, W2 is present week closing price and W1 is the previous week closing price.
Once the data is calculated, weekly return column for NIFTY50 is considered as “X” variable and the weekly returns column for Kwality Ltd. (Kwality) is considered as “Y” variable.
The Model and formulas used are :-
Y = a +bX
X ̅ =∑X/N
Y ̅=∑Y/N
x = X – X ̅
y = Y – Y ̅
b=∑xy/∑(x)^2
a= Y ̅- bX ̅
e = Y – Y ̅
Variance of error=(σe)^2 =∑e^2/N-K
S.E of b = √ ((σe)^2 /∑x^2)
t stat of b = b/ S.E of b
TSS=ESS+RSS
ESS = (b^2)*(∑x^2)
RSS = ∑e^2
R^2 = ESS/TSS
F = Mean ESS/Mean RSS
Data Analysis:
Utilizing the Regression Add-on in Microsoft Excel Data Analytics tool below values were acquired
R Square = R^2 = 0.0081930
a = 450.0353
b = -0.00915
F = 0.433279
P value = 0.034817
Below expression shows the relationship model between Kwality Ltd. (Kwality) and NIFTY50 weekly returns :
Kwality Ltd. (Kwality) Weekly Return = 450.0353 + 0.00915 *(NIFTY50 Weekly Return)

Conclusion:
Based on the research methodology and data analysis performed we can conclude that only 9.0 % of Kwality Ltd. (Kwality)weekly returns can be explained by NIFTY50 weekly returns, remaining 94 % is dependent upon Kwality Ltd. (Kwality)fundamentals and policies. also its evident that 1% increase in NIFTY50 returns will result in 0.4% increase in Kwality Ltd. (Kwality) returns.
Since F value is greater than the P value this model is not statistically good and significant. Risk factor of using this model for forecasting Kwality Ltd. (Kwality) weekly returns are very high.