TITTLE: -REGRESSION ANALYSIS BETWEEN AGRO TECH FOODS LTD. AND NIFTY 50.
Author: – Alan Paul. ITM, Kharghar. Roll no.07.

Introduction: – Agro Tech Foods Limited is a company with a dominant market position in the edible oils and branded foods sector, in India. ConAgra Foods Inc of USA, world’s third largest foods company, along with Tiger Brands of South Africa holds a majority stake of 51.3 percent in Agro Tech Foods Limited, through CAG Tech Holdings, Mauritius. The company was incorporated in 1986 as ITC Agro-Tech to enter the oil seed and edible oils business. In October 1997, ConAgra acquired a 51.3 per cent stake in the company through its investment arm, CAG-Tech Mauritius. At present CAG-Tech Mauritius holds 49.24% of the total paid-up capital of the company . ConAgra is a diversified international food company operating across the food chain in over 35 countries. ITC Agro-Tech’s name was changed to Agro-Tech Foods in July 2000. The company, with ConAgra firmly at the helm, plans to emerge as a major player in the foods and edible oils business. The Company plans to launch a new branded food product in the country every six months. The company has well known brands like Sundrop, Health World, ACT II and Rath in its portfolio. The company has two business segments namely Branded Foods Segment and Bulk and Processed Commodities Segment. In 1992-93, the company came out with a rights issue on preferential basis aggregating to 4084257 Equity Shares of Rs.10/- each at a premium of Rs.90 per share. In 1994-95, the company acquired the use of Brands, Trade Marks & Logos of the edible oil business from ITC Ltd in March, 1995 for a consideration of Rs.25 crores. During 1995-96, the company has disinvested the entire equity stake in its subsidiary ITC Agro-Tech Finance and Investments Ltd. In association with ConAgra of the US, its parent company, ATFL has already forayed into the dry grocery category with the launch of Healthy World atta in the Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh markets in November, 1999. In the next 3-5 years, the company would be spending Rs. 50-60 crores on expanding its distribution network and market base, apart from promoting its products. As per the Agreement between ITC Affiliates and CAG-Tech (Mauritius) Ltd, upon expiration of a period not exceeding three years from 7th October 1997, use of the ‘ITC’ prefix was to be discontinued from the name of the company. Accordingly, the name was changed from ITC Agro-Tech Ltd to Agro Tech Foods Ltd with effect from 29th June 2000. The Company entered the hard fats business with acquisition of the Vanaspati brand Rath in June 2000. Healthy World Green Peas was launched in June 2000 in northern markets and subsequently extended to the rest of the country. The Company divested its entire equity in Palmtech India Ltd in favour of Kumpulan Emas Berhad (KEB). During 2001-02 the company has commenced implementation of an integrated IT solution and this latest solution is being offered from Oracle Corporation. The Company has disinvested its equity stake in Advanta India Limited on 31st of July, 2005.

Objective: – To understand the regression relationship between average weekly returns of Nifty 50 and Agro Tech Foods Limited.

Data Collection: -The data for the regression analysis is been taken from www.nseindia.com. The historical indices for the Agro Tech Foods Limited and the Nifty-50 of the year from 1 Feb, 2018 to 31 Jan, 2019 is been gathered.
The data was saved in CSV format. Data was manipulated to get every Friday’s closing price for the selected period of time.
Nifty 50 is denoted by “X”
Agro Tech Foods Limited is denoted by “Y”
And Y was tested on X i.e. regressing Y on X.

Data Analysis: –
The Model and formulas used are: –
Y = a +bX
X ̅ =∑X/N
Y ̅=∑Y/N
x = X – X ̅
y = Y – Y ̅
b=∑xy/∑(x)^2
a= Y ̅- bX ̅
e = Y – Y ̅
Variance of error=(σe) ^2 =∑e^2/N-K
S.E of b = √ ((σe) ^2 /∑x^2)
t stat of b = b/ S.E of b
TSS=ESS+RSS
ESS = (b^2) *(∑x^2)
RSS = ∑e^2
R^2 = ESS/TSS
F = Mean ESS/Mean RSS.

Utilizing the Regression Add-on in Microsoft Excel Data Analytics tool below values were acquired

R Square = R^2 = 0.0302696286635872.
F = 1.46708053005288.
P value = 0.194215935505646.
Standard Error = 247.870998473234.

CONCLUSION: –
Above equation tells us the relationship between demand and price, if price rises by 1 unit demand will fall by 247.870998473234 units, vice versa.
F value is greater than the P value this model is not statistically good and significant. Risk factor of using this model for forecasting Agro Tech Foods Limited’s weekly returns are very high.
R square is 0.0302696286635872 which means 3.03% of demand depends upon price the balance is error i.e. 96.97%.